Tuesday, 3 July 2012

(BN) Yen Remains Lower on Speculation Central Banks to Boost Stimulus

(BN) Yen Remains Lower on Speculation Central Banks to Boost Stimulus

By Masaki Kondo and Mariko Ishikawa

     July 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yen remained lower against most of its 16 major peers following a decline yesterday amid speculation central banks will introduce more steps to stimulate growth, sapping demand for haven assets.
     The dollar was 0.1 percent from a two-month low versus the Australian currency before U.S. data tomorrow that may show private employment rose at the slowest pace in 10 months. Stocks climbed globally and a gauge of commodities jumped after the International Monetary Fund said additional monetary easing may be needed in the U.S. The European Central Bank will probably cut interest rates tomorrow, a Bloomberg News survey forecast.

     “The ECB story itself will do wonders to keep the risk on for a little bit longer,” said Gavin Stacey, Sydney-based chief rate strategist at Barclays Plc. “What we’re seeing in terms of safe haven currencies, a little bit of softness in dollar and yen, will be consistent with the idea that risk is extending.”
     The yen traded at 100.63 per euro as of 8:16 a.m. in Tokyo after losing 0.6 percent to 100.61 in New York yesterday. It fetched 79.84 per dollar from 79.79. The U.S. currency was at $1.2604 per euro after sliding 0.3 percent to $1.2608. The greenback was little changed at $1.0285 per Australian dollar after reaching $1.0297 yesterday, the weakest since May 3.

     U.S. financial markets are shut today for the Independence Day holiday.

                         Employment Data

     Companies in the U.S. probably added 100,000 jobs in June, the smallest gain since August, a Bloomberg poll of economists shows before ADP Employer Services releases the figure tomorrow.
     The U.S. economy will grow about 2.25 percent in 2013 amid a “tepid” recovery and the European debt crisis, the IMF said, lowering its previous projection of 2.4 percent. “Further easing” by the Federal Reserve might be needed “if the situation was to deteriorate,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters in Washington yesterday.

     The MSCI All-Country World Index of shares rose 1 percent yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of commodities gained 3.5 percent to the highest since May 22.
     The ECB will probably lower its main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.75 percent on July 5, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Monday, 2 July 2012

Market Update- 3 July 2012

 ·      Risk appetites are still hard to sustain with the US ISM numbers disappointing last night and market turned back to its bearish mood, the resuce in Europe still depends a lot on the specific details on how its going to work out
·     Markets overnight paused for thought following Friday’s euphoria and were left fearing for the health of the US economic recovery as the ISM Manufacturing Index showed contraction in the sector for the first time since 2009:

USISM Manufacturing PMI
·     The number came in at 49.7vs a survey of 52 and last month’s 53.5. Next up is payrolls on Friday, another round of disappointing numbers will push markets recovery further back.

·     Italian unemployment unexpectedly fell in May to 10.1%, the median survey was for a rise from 10.2 to 10.3%. An impressive 60k jobs were added to provide the first drop in the gauge since February 2011 and adding to the slightly better than forecast manufacturing PMI figures out across Europe, risk markets were well bid in early trade. (The Euro Zone unemployment rate rose to a record high of11.1%, but was in line with expectations)
·     Equity markets proved resilient to the slowing US data, with the S&P ending 0.25% higher and the DOW closing down only 0.07%.

·     US treasuries down 5.6 bps to 1.589%, bunds down 6bps to1.517% and Italy down 9bps to 5.71%.
·     Spain was the only loser, it’s yields rising 5bpsto 6.3%. Oil was slightly weaker, closing down $1 at $83.75 while gold was flat but off its lows at $1596.43

·      USDMYR opened where it closed yesterday at 3.1650-3.1700 and we continue to expect support at 3.1400 as we see more interest to buy at those levels, while sellers will come in closer to 3.2000 to complete the range trade of 3.1400-3.2000

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Malaysia Palm Oil Data 2 July 2012

Malaysia Palm Oil Data 2 July 2012

ITS (1-30 June) = 1449280 v1382091(u​p 4.9%)

SGS (1-30 June)=1463​864 v1333869(u​p 9.75%)

Sunday, 1 July 2012

Yen, Dollar Remain Lower as Asian Shares Climb, Tankan Improves


Yen, Dollar Remain Lower as Asian Shares Climb, Tankan Improves

2012-07-02 00:09:53.795 GMT

By Masaki Kondo and Mariko Ishikawa

     July 2 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and dollar remained lower against most of their major peers following declines at the end of last week as Asian shares extended a global rally, damping the allure of haven assets.

     The Japanese currency posted the biggest drop in more than a year versus the euro on June 29 after European leaders eased terms on loans to Spanish banks, taking a step toward resolving the region’s debt crisis. Demand for the 17-nation euro was limited before data today that may show the jobless rate in the bloc climbed to a record and manufacturing contracted. Japan’s large manufacturers became less pessimistic in June, the central bank’s Tankan index showed today.

     “Safe assets such as the dollar and yen are being sold amid risk-on sentiment,” said Marito Ueda, senior managing director in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp., a currency-margin company.

“The outlook for Europe’s economy is still bleak.”

     The yen traded at 100.83 per euro as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping 2.2 percent to 101.04 in New York at the end of last week, the biggest slide on a closing basis since March 2011. The dollar was at $1.2639 per euro after falling 1.8 percent to $1.2667 on June 29. The greenback was little changed at 79.77 yen.

     European Union leaders dropped the requirement that governments get preferred creditor status on crisis loans to Spain’s blighted banks, EU President Herman Van Rompuy said after a two-day summit on June 29. Banks can also be recapitalized directly with European bailout funds rather than being channeled through governments, he said.

     The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent, following a 2.5 percent surge on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index on June 29. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2.7 percent.

                            ECB Policy

      “The latest EU summit has clearly bought time for the euro. But it still does not remove the bearish case for the currency,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of foreign-exchange strategy in Singapore at UBS AG, wrote in a note on June 30.

“The market is likely to focus on whether the ECB will cut interest rates” at a July 5 meeting.

     The ECB will probably lower the benchmark rate to 0.75 percent from a record 1 percent, economists forecast.

     The jobless rate in the euro zone probably rose to 11.1 percent in May from 11 percent the prior month, a Bloomberg News Survey of economists shows. It would be the highest on record going back to 1990.

     London-based Markit Economics may confirm its gauge of the currency bloc’s manufacturing was 44.8 in June on a final reading, unchanged from an initial estimate, according to a separate poll of economists. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

     The quarterly Tankan index of sentiment was minus 1 in June from minus 4 in March, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of minus 4. A negative number means pessimists out number optimists.

Market Update- 2 July 2012

Market Update- 2 July 2012

·      For those who have not read the sports headlines, Spain thrashed Italy 4-0 in the Euro finals, could this be a positive turning of tide for Spain including their debt crisis sues and economy?

·      Risk appetite is definitely back on as most risky assets have gone back up- this was kick started last Friday with the agreement from EU

·      Treasuries fell, pushing up 10-year yields the most in almost three months, after euro-area leaders expanded steps to stem the bloc’s debt crisis, damping demand for the safest assets

·      Spanish and Italian notes rose for a second week as euro-area leaders expanded steps to stem the debt crisis by easing repayment rules for emergency loans to Spain’s banks and relaxing conditions on potential help for Italy

·      The Italian two-year yield dropped to the lowest in a month after leaders of the euro nations also scrapped the requirement that governments get preferred-creditor status on crisis loans to the country’s banks

·      German 30-year bunds dropped for a fourth week as optimism the financial turmoil will be contained reduced demand for the region’s safest assets

·      USDMYR also opened lower this week at 3.1650-3.1700 as we continue to see support at 3.1400 and resistance at 3.2000 in the short term

·      News headlines are likely to drive the markets again this week with BNM meeting on Thursday, we expect no change from BNM and also the US jobs data which will be more crucial