Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Market Update - 7 November 2012


  • Was hoping to wake up and all the votes would be in but it’s gonna take longer than expected. So headline watching today as news trickles out about the US election results, just remember the 2000 election took weeks to resolve after it was too close to call.
  • USDMYR also trading with a slight risk on as the elections and weeks of uncertainty is coming to a close, if no dispute or nothing unexpected happens. USDMYR likely to trade in the tight range of 3.0400-3.0800
  • Markets overnight traded in a fashion consistent with an Obama victory (Intrade have a 70% of Obama winning) although it is still too early to tell; The US dollar was weaker except vs the Yen where it seems months of dithering over how to weaken the currency may finally be starting to work for policy makers there, next BOJ event 20/11 but they may not wait that long .
  • Gold put on 1.8% or $30 to close $1714.32 while other commodities tracked higher with copper up 1.1% and oil rose 3% to $88.29.
  • The S&P and the DOW close higher by about 1%, led by oil & gas stocks and financials after it became clear yesterday that Basel 3 implementation would be delayed by at least 6 months.
  • We had services PMI figures out of Europe and they did nothing to dispel my fears that Q4 is going to be tough across the board; Spain and Italy beat expectations but are mired in contractionary territory while the German and French indices are both sat at their lowest levels since the depth of the GFC (and France is not far of that low either). Anyway, the equity markets clung to the stronger peripheral figures and were helped by a €20b tax break package announced by the French PM.
  • German factory orders fell 3.3% mom versus a survey of -0.4% and -0.8% last month, ouch.
  • The Eurostoxx rose 0.73% while the currency was slightly firmer while peripheral spreads narrowed slightly. Spain seems to have gone very quiet vis a bailout where if we don’t get an announcement at next week’s summit the markets will be straight back onto them while Greece takes the headlines for now with a pivotal vote in their parliament tonight (by the way the Greek 10yr yield fell 65bps on the secondary market overnight...).
  • US treasuries were soft as money switched from notes (+5.6bps) to bunds (+1bp) and the spread there reached the 30pt technical level as fears about congressional intransigence vis the fiscal cliff if Obama should win hurt sentiment.
  • The 5am US 3yr auction saw BTC 3.41 vs 3.97 last, Indirect Bidders took 25.1% vs 28.8% last, High Yield 0.392% vs 0.346% last. No immediate reaction, TYZ2 later drifts off 4 ticks over the hour but hardly looked tender related.
  • The reverse in fortune for the UK continued as Industrial production fell 1.7% mom and manufacturing production was weaker than expected. The pound was steady and sitting just below 1.6000.

Monday, 5 November 2012

Market Update - 6 November 2012


  • The yoyo trading in equities overnight was unsurprising given the busy calendar for the rest of the week. European stocks fell (Eurostoxx -1.16%), playing catch up with the late selloff in the US on Friday, with Spain (-1.89%) underperforming after the number of registered unemployed rose 128.2k vs the survey of 110k with the total number of jobless rising 2.7% to 4.8m.
  • The Dow will close marginally higher, as will the S&P as banks look soft but tech, oil & gas stocks outperformed.
  • USDMYR opened where it closed yesterday at 3.0630 as market keenly awaits the result of the presidential election, Asia time will know the results when we wake up tmrw. Expect low trading volumes and maybe some slight upside for today as we await the elections but I reckon regardless who wins, market should be risk on slightly tomorrow as the uncertainty lingering for past month is finally over.
  • Interesting enough, on Bloomberg TV yesterdat they interviewed Paddy Power one of the largest online betting firms and they have already paid out for the people who placed their bets on Obama to win, and that percentage of betters who bet on Obama to win was 75%. These guys are usually quite sharp for some reason, let’s see if they made the right decision to pay out early this round.
  • Peripheral spreads widened again as safe havens were sought, treasury yields fell 3bps to 1.686% and German 2yr yield turned negative for the first time in 2 months.
  • Gold also bounced 0.34% or $6 to $1684, while WTI oil stepped back from the precipice, rising 86c to $85.72.
  • The ISM released its Non-Manufacturing PMI in the States, the number was 54.2 vs 55.1 last and 54.5 on the survey. The number, despite falling is showing a mild uptrend with construction and retail the best performing sectors; the employment index also showed a large rise to 54.9 from 51.1 last month.
  • In the UK the services PMI fell to 50.6 from 52.2, a level last seen in late 2010 and at the bottom of the post GFC range. This flies in the face of the recently positive data there; the pound fell 46pts through 1.60 to close 1.5969.

Baby Center - 1 year old, first to fourth week

1 year old, first week

How your baby's growing
Happy birthday, baby! Your first year is over and babyhood is behind you. Hold on for the toddler years... In the coming months, your little one will seek more independence, discover the world from an upright position, find his sense of humour, and best of all, learn to say he loves you.

Your life: easing separations
Though your baby is beginning to discover his independence, he probably still has bouts of separation anxiety. This is natural. To ease departures, allow plenty of time. Getting to the nursery early or getting him settled with the babysitter early gives him a chance to adjust. It's best to be matter-of-fact when you leave.

Don't sneak away or prolong the agony with extended good-byes; make it quick, with just one kiss. If you listen outside, you'll usually find that your baby's tears subside soon after you're out of sight. It's hard not to feel guilty, but you can help your child feel more independent by not hovering over him all the time.

Read more about helping your baby make a smooth transition between your home and his carer's home.

Keeping toys fresh
It's a good idea to put away some of those new toys and bring them out a few at a time, so your baby doesn't get overwhelmed. You'll need to sort out toy storage now, to keep all the pieces of that jigsaw or shape sorter together. Keep hold of shoe boxes, biscuit tins and gift boxes, which all make useful storage boxes. If your baby has some birthday money to spend, you'll notice that a frustratingly large number of toys are labelled unsuitable for under-threes – find out why.

Baby signing
In the second year, many toddlers become frustrated by their inability to communicate their needs – they know what they want but they don't have the language skills to say it. Baby signing is becoming an established technique to get over this stage. You and your toddler can quickly learn a handful of signs to help her let you know when she wants more food or needs a drink, for example. While some people worry that using sign language will delay talking, the opposite has been found to be true.

Parent tip: baby book club
"I started reading to my baby when she was two months old. I kept to a small group of three books with rhyming words and colourful pictures. Now she'll leaf through any book or magazine in her path! When she's in the mood, she'll babble as she turns the pages herself." – Gloria


Things to consider
Your baby's MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) immunisation is due in the next few weeks. You can find out more details in our immunisation chart .


1 year old, second week

Introducing the dentist
It's time for your toddler's first official visit to the dentist. It may seem a little early, but caring for your toddler's teeth as soon as they emerge will reduce her chances of needing fillings when she's older.

Hopefully you'll have already started taking her to your own appointments so that she can get used to all the different sights, sounds and smells of a dentist's surgery. From now on it's a good idea to start making separate appointments for her too.

Your toddler's first visit is an opportunity to check that all is well with her baby teeth. It also gives your dentist an opportunity to offer pointers on brushing her teeth, preventing decay and making sure she gets the right amount of fluoride.

At home, continue cleaning your toddler's teeth using a small brush with soft bristles and a small smear of children's fluoride toothpaste. Children under three should use a toothpaste with a fluoride level of at least 1000ppm (parts per million). Try to use small, circular movements rather than sawing backwards and forwards. You may find you get a better view of your toddler's mouth if you cradle her on your lap with her head resting in the crook of your arm. To distract your child while you do the job, try giving her a toothbrush to hold, too.

Your life: putting milk on the menu
Cow's milk can probably become a bigger part of your child's diet now that she's passed the 12-month mark.

Whole, or full-fat, milk is usually the beverage of choice at this age because toddlers need fat to fuel their growth and their considerable energy needs. You should give her this until she's at least two years old.

When drunk in moderate amounts, cow's milk has many of the nutrients a growing toddler needs. Nutritionists recommend that one-year-olds drink no more than 350ml (two thirds of a pint) of milk a day.

Some toddlers love their milk and the challenge for parents is not to go overboard. A child who drinks more than 350ml may fill up on milk and miss out on other foods that are important for a balanced diet.

At the other extreme are toddlers who turn up their nose at cow's milk, at least at first. After all, it has a different texture, taste and even temperature to breastmilk or formula. Parents of reluctant milk-drinkers can try mixing whole milk with some breastmilk or formula milk at first (say, one part whole milk and three parts of your toddler's usual milk). Then slowly increase the amount of milk to 100 per cent.

Parent tip: buying books
"I buy children's books for my son and include a sentimental note inside the cover related to the book's subject. Not only will it be a special keepsake for him one day, but it also builds up his library." – Courtney


Things to consider
Does your little one love hearing the same sounds and stories over and over again. Find out why.

If you feel ready to stop breastfeeding, find out how to wean your toddler from the breast.

Or maybe extended breastfeeding is best for both of you?


1 year old, third week

Beyond babbling
It's an exciting time when, after months of babbling, your child begins to form recognisable words. It's not an overnight process, and the pace varies significantly from child to child. One thing is sure, though: he understands far more than he can say. Some things to watch for include:
  • Gestures that speak louder than words. Your toddler may be a man of few words but talking up a storm in gestures, like raised arms for "up" or a pointed finger for "What's that?" Toddlers who learn sign language as babies are especially "fluent".

  • Words with many meanings. An early word like "joos" may mean, "I'm thirsty for milk," "No, I want water," or "Mum! I dropped my bottle!" Listen to the tone. He'll say the same word in different ways and using different gestures.

  • Words from everyday life. Perhaps not surprisingly, your child's first words probably relate to things in his immediate life: "Mama" and "Dada", other favourite people or pets or words to do with eating ("baba" for bottle), sleeping ("nite-nite"), possessions ("ba" for bear) or desires ("up").

Your life now: big dangers for small fingers
Your toddler's pincer grasp is probably well developed by now, so he can pick up small objects between his thumb and forefinger fairly easily. He may enjoy practising this skill on any little thing he finds on the floor, which is a lot closer and more visible to his keen eyes than it is to yours.

Be extra careful about small but potentially dangerous items that fall to the floor without adults noticing, such as vitamins and other pills, pieces of food (and pet food), pushpins from the kitchen noticeboard, tiny toy parts used by older siblings and so on. They could end up in your child's mouth.

Parent tip: learning languages
"Kids grow up all over the world learning more than one language, and our children can too. Malaysians know this better than most other people. We should encourage and help our kids learn more than one language." – Vishnu


Things to consider
Help your toddler develop his love of reading.

1 year old, fourth week

How your toddler's growing: copy-cat behaviour
Your child is watching everything you do. Toddlers love to copy the behaviour of people around them, especially their parents. It's how they learn basic behaviours.

You may see your child trying to brush her hair, wiping a table with her bib, pressing buttons on your mobile, or trying on your sunglasses. Eventually she'll pick up on your words and speech patterns, too.

But imitation has a downside. Your child may watch you take vitamins or pills and later, when you're not looking, decide to do the same herself. So be vigilant about safety. Look for child-resistant caps on medicines and vitamins, and store the pills out of reach. Don't let her see how you open child-safety latches – she'll be eager to open them just like you do.

Your life now: marking milestones
Worried that your little one isn't toddling around on two feet yet? There's probably no need for concern. The normal range for reaching this milestone is very broad, and some children don't walk until 16 or 17 months.

The 12-month mark is a good time to remember that each child is unique and meets milestones at their own pace. What's important is the progression – in other words, that she's continuing to develop and learn new skills.

Developmental guidelines simply show what your child has the potential to accomplish – if not right now, then soon. Trust your instincts, and don't hesitate to bring up concerns with your family doctor or paediatrician if you're worried or want to know what to watch for.

Parent tip: reuse disposable wipes
"Most disposable wipes can be reused. In my house, they actually survive two or three journeys through the washing machine. When they're clean, I put them back in the tub with the others." – Libby


Things to consider
Help your child become more independent.

Market Update - 5 November 2012


  • Friday started with fresh PMI figures in the Euro Zone and they showed manufacturing activity continuing to struggle across the board with most countries hitting multi month lows. Meanwhile construction activity in the UK beat expectations as data there continues to outperform.
  • In the US, non-farm payroll figures released showed the country added 171k jobs in October, more than the 125k survey, while the previous 2 releases were revised higher by a collective 84k. The participation rate grew 0.2% however, which sent the unemployment rate to 7.9% from 7.8% last month.
  • Obama and Romney both jumped on the data to support their respective arguments but I think most would agree that people are already made up now, an average of polls have Obama very slightly ahead but crucially he is up in the key swing states of Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. Election results expected on Wednesday here.
  • Market traded on fundamentals, kinda rare if you ask me in the recent market, but shortly after the positive datas with uncertainty in elections, risk aversion came back again. For now it seems Obama have a slight nudege ahead after how he handled hurricane Sandy and also with jobs data improving, the Americans might been keen to give him another terms.
  • If Romney does win it might bring some investors confidence back to America and we could see the US Equities and also US Dollar stronger, but of course my view could easily be invalidated by market’s reaction and perception.
  • USDMYR opened higher at 3.0600 as market awaits the presidential election, it’ll be interesting to see who’s the next US president when we wake up on Wednesday.
  • Greece was the centre of attention in Europe again and will be until the parliament votes through the latest austerity package on Wednesday night, last week saw splintering in support for the government from several high profile coalition partners, markets will be on edge until that hurdle is cleared. PIMCO stuck the knife in, MD Andrew Bosomworth saying, "Greece is insolvent and it's going to default. It's just a question of how and when that is realized." Stocks in Greece fell 12% on the week, their biggest fall in 2.5yrs.
  • Equities tried to rally on the payrolls but the e-mini fell 1.8% from its morning high, closing down 0.94% while the DOW lost 140pts or 1.05%. Stocks in Europe eked out gains, the Eurostoxx up 0.52%, led by Spain. Treasury yields fell 1bp to 1.715% after touching 1.78% early. The greenback was the star performer out there with it reaching its highest level since April vs the Yen, gold down 2.1% to $1678 and the Euro down a big figure. Commodities were softer as oil hit a 4 month low on a closing basis at $84.86, down 2.4%.
  • The Feds Williams (mild voting dove) didn’t help matters by suggesting the Fiscal cliff would likely be dealt with by some austerity measures.
  • Looking ahead it’s going to be busy this week with retail sales here today, RBA and The Cup tomorrow, G20 meetings today and tomorrow, the US election tomorrow night and Aussie unemployment, BOE & ECB all on Thursday

Friday, 2 November 2012

FX Forecast (2 Nov 2012)


Revised FX forecast till end 2014. . 

Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
USD-JPY
80.10
80.55
81.00
81.45
81.90
82.68
83.45
84.23
85.00
EUR-USD
1.2810
1.2943
1.3194
1.3446
1.3698
1.3623
1.3549
1.3474
1.3400
GBP-USD
1.5987
1.6042
1.6211
1.6379
1.6547
1.6570
1.6593
1.6616
1.6638
AUD-USD
1.0305
1.0259
1.0437
1.0616
1.0794
1.0820
1.0847
1.0873
1.0900
NZD-USD
0.8050
0.8088
0.8264
0.8441
0.8618
0.8556
0.8495
0.8433
0.8372
USD-CAD
1.0077
1.0031
0.9898
0.9764
0.9631
0.9618
0.9604
0.9591
0.9577
USD-CHF
0.9426
0.9340
0.9202
0.9063
0.8943
0.8946
0.8949
0.8952
0.8955
USD-SGD
1.2300
1.2289
1.2122
1.1956
1.1789
1.1867
1.1944
1.2022
1.2100
USD-CNY
6.2300
6.1990
6.1680
6.1370
6.1060
6.0712
6.0363
6.0015
5.9666
USD-THB
30.78
30.69
30.46
30.23
29.99
30.06
30.12
30.19
30.25
USD-IDR
9626
9555
9485
9414
9343
9241
9139
9037
8935
USD-MYR
3.0892
3.0811
3.0378
2.9944
2.9511
2.9694
2.9877
3.0060
3.0243
USD-KRW
1090
1082
1071
1059
1047
1056
1065
1074
1082
USD-TWD
29.44
29.34
29.02
28.71
28.39
28.44
28.49
28.53
28.58
USD-HKD
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
7.7500
USD-PHP
41.04
40.89
40.75
40.60
40.45
40.47
40.50
40.52
40.54
USD-INR
54.80
54.31
52.83
51.34
49.86
50.64
51.41
52.19
52.97

Oral Sex Survey Results

5,000 men were asked to complete a survey on what they liked best about 'Oral Sex':

A.. 3% liked the warmth
B.. 4% enjoyed the sensation.
C.. 93% appreciated the silence.....!!!!!


Thursday, 1 November 2012

White Bread is“dead” bread

White Bread is“dead” bread

The Swiss government has been aware of the dangers of eating white bread for decades and in order to get its populace to stop eating it, Switzerlandhas placed a tax on the purchase of white bread. The tax money is given to bakers to reduce the price of whole wheat bread to encourage people to switch.

The Canadian government passed a law prohibiting the “enrichment”of white bread with synthetic vitamins. Bread must contain the original vitamins found in the grain, not imitations.

Essentially, white bread is “dead” bread. Frequently, consumers are not told the truth about this and so called “enriched” flour.

Why is the color of white bread so white when the flour taken from wheat is not?

It’s because the flour used to make white bread is chemically bleached,
just like you bleach your clothes. When you are eating white bread, you are also eating residual chemical bleach. Flour mills use different chemical bleaches, all of which are pretty bad. Here are a few of them: oxide of nitrogen, chlorine, chloride, nitrosyl and benzoyl peroxide mixed with various chemical salts.

One bleaching agent, chloride oxide, combined with whatever proteins are still left in the flour, produces alloxan. Alloxon is a poison and has been used to produce diabetes in laboratory animals. Chlorine oxide destroys the vital wheat germ oil. It will also shorten the flour’s shelf life.

Good Nutrition: You Won’t Find It In White Bread In the process of making flour white, half of the good unsaturated fatty acids, that are high in food value, are lost in the milling process alone, and virtually all the vitamin E is lost with the removal of wheat germ and bran. As a result, the remaining flour in the white bread you buy, contains only poor quality proteins and fattening starch.

But that is not the whole story as to the loss of nutrients. About 50% of all calcium, 70% of phosphorus, 80% iron, 98% magnesium, 75% manganese, 50% potassium, and 65% of copper is destroyed. If that is not bad enough, about 80% thiamin, 60% of riboflavin, 75% of niacin, 50% of pantothenic acid, and about 50% of Pyridoxine is also lost.

Scientific Study Has Confirmed What The Swiss Have Known For Years These horrific numbers are the results of a study run by the University of California,College of Agriculture.

It is obvious, from what we have learned, that white bread should be avoided. Whole wheat, rye, and grain breads made with whole wheat flour is a better way.

It is a good idea to always read the labels and never buy foods that contain artificial flavors, colors, bleached flour, preservatives, hydrogenated or partially hydrogenated oils.