Market Update - 10 Jan 2013

• Both equities & treasuries end up higher in overnight trade with little real news. Initial equity strength put down to a good start from Alcoa reporting. UBS also lifted its rating of Lloyds (+4.9%) & lifted targets for RBS & Barclays to boot. The FTSE hit a new 4 year high ahead of ECB and BOE meetings tonight.

• USDMYR still stuck at 3.0400 and trading range of 3.0200-3.0800 remain intact, expecting little movement in MYR today but keeping a tab on the local news for further election developments that could potentially sway the pair.

• Just to share, in house 2013 Malaysia GDP, OCBC is expecting it to come in at 5.20% slight improvement from last year’s forecast, mainly supported by the domestic demand and also the trickle over from last year’s huge project expenditure and also foreign investments. Last year’s 20% direct investments were a one off and we do not expect that to be sustainable for this year.

• German November Industrial Production +0.2% vs exp +1.0%, prev was revised up from -2.6% to -2%.

• Peripheral spreads pushed out a little more...German/Spain another 7.5pts, German/Portuguese another 5pts. German/Italian steady as news Monti’s Italian deficit is dropping & in particular that revenue growth is beginning to trend higher than spending growth.

• The Yen weakening again, reversing most of its 2 day counter trend move with QE chatter returning & profit taking exhausted. The Japanese Govt told Reuters they would engage in 6 trillion yen (US$69bln) more QE in 1012/13 than originally planned & possibly raise inflation target to 2%.

• US 10yr auction set 20bpts above prev - BTC 2.83 vs 2.95 last, Indirects 28.5% vs 24.2% last. Yield 1.863% vs 1.652% last. Futs -4pts on the result.

• Commodities did more circle work, Gold off 5 bucks while copper & crude almost unchanged.

• Wayne Swan has written to all ministers seeking savings, saying spending would not be increased as Labor tries to pay for its major ­election policies of the National ­Disability Insurance Scheme and an education overhaul. Markets is expecting RBA to cut another 25bps and some expecting 50bps cut for the full 2013, I on the other hand am a little more conservative, 0-25bps cut while we expect markets to gradually recover very very slowly this year.

Market Update - 8 Jan 2013

• A small positive for the Banking sector with Basel III rules relaxed a little. There has been an expansion in the range of assets that can be used to meet liquidity requirements and the timetable for implementation will be slower (full implementation to 2019 from 2015). Some eyebrows raised though as gold was not defined a “high quality liquid asset”.

• Equities were down roughly 0.5% in all major markets. The banking sector outperformed on the news above though.

• USDMYR pretty much trading sideways as we expect the 3.0200-3.0700 range. The pair opened at 3.0400 this morning as the interest in SGDMYR continue to weigh on USDMYR with interest in buying MYR on the back of MAS interventions suspected.

• Italy’s Mario Monti would run for PM in next government but unlikely to accept a FinMin role. Berlusconi officially renewed his alliance with his right wing Northern League coalition partners. This increases the chance of an election with no clear outright winner & mkts pared back risk.

• Eurozone PPI was the only data on the night...printing -0.2% MoM as expected. The YoY figure came in a little unders. Last months figure was a small positive so the reversal probably helps explain EU peripheral spreads push out at the margin. German/Spain +7.5pts, German/Italy +10.5pts.

• No US data or major news. Treasury 10-year note yields were at almost an eight-month high in before the first auction of the securities this year on concern the Federal Reserve may wind down debt purchases earlier than most investors anticipated.
  
• Yields on the benchmark securities soared the most since March last week after minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed policy makers differed over the scope of purchases and several officials thought the Fed should end quantitative easing before year-end. The U.S. is selling $66 billion of notes and bonds this week, including $21 billion in 10-year debt in two days.

• Fed's Plosser (Non-voting SUPER Hawk):
  Unclear what Fed will do when inflation reaches 2.5% & unemployment at 6.5%. There is a fear people become too focused on the thresholds.

• The recent Chinese stock market bounce is getting some further press. The Shanghai Comp is +18% since Dec 3^rd & the CSI300 index is up 22% over the same time.

• Aussie Iron Ore prices have rallied from $115 to $154 as a consequence in December, in fact they’ve rallied from an $86 low just last September.

Market Update - 7 Jan 2013

• NFP in line with consensus at 155k and unemployment rate remained flat at 7.8%. US stocks struggled to register gains and S&P closed only 7 pts higher. Gold fell 2% at one stage but pared losses into the close.

• The December non-manufacturing ISM index jumped to 56.1 from 54.7, above expectations for a smaller increase. Looking at the details, new orders rose to 59.3 from 58.1, although the biggest driver of the improvement was the employment index, which surged to 56.3 – the highest level since March – from 50.3

• Equities closed flat on Friday night and USDMYR opened flat at 3.0450, similar to last Friday’s closing. I think USDMYR will continue to range trade at 3.0200-3.0700 for this week baring any major news on the US fiscal cliff front and also local election news. SGDMYR also dived from 2.5050 to 2.4750 on the back that MAS is selling SGD in the market, this also weights on USDMYR.

• Treasury 10-year yields soared the most since March in the first week of the year after the U.S. avoided the so-called fiscal cliff and Federal Reserve minutes showed policy makers differ over the scope of asset purchases.
  
• The 10-year yield reached 1.97 percent yesterday, its highest level since April 26, before dropping after the Labor Department released a report showing the U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8 percent in December.

• Several policy makers thought the Fed should curb its asset purchases, a policy known as quantitative easing, “well before the end of 2013,” according to a record of the central bank’s Dec. 11-12 meeting. The U.S. will sell $66 billion of notes and bonds next week.

• Italian and Spanish notes advanced this week, with yields dropping the most since September, as signs the global economy is recovering spurred demand for higher-yielding assets.
  
• Italy’s two-year yields fell to the lowest in more than two years as U.S. lawmakers agreed a budget deal to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff and reports showed the American job market and German retail sales improved. German 10-year yields climbed to the highest in three months as investor appetite for safer assets waned.

• Economists predict the European Central Bank will keep its key rate at a record low next week to encourage growth.

Market Update - 4 Jan 2013

• How fast does feel good sentiment evaporate? Pretty fast indeed, as market just can’t seem to have a sustained rally.

• Market looks beyond the agreement on Tuesday and now focus on the battles ahead with the debt ceiling and spending cuts, I guess the bigger picture for now is still positive but market is taking a breather after quite abit of action past couple of days.

• Also we are expecting the NFP numbers tonight and the bulls are likely to have took some profit ahead of the release before they continue with the buying of risky assets should the numbers be in line or better than expectations.

• Add to that, some are reading the FOMC minutes to suggest an earlier end to QE than markets previously envisioned, and those sentiments are weighing on stocks/risk assets and supporting the USD. The minutes stated that “several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or stop [Treasury and MBS purchases] well before the end of 2013.” And a separate excerpt stated that members discussed the possibility that “additional purchases could complicate the Committee’s efforts to eventually withdraw monetary policy accommodation…”

• USDMYR also opened higher at 3.0450 in line with the rest of markets as 3.0300 now becomes the new intermediate support and trading range shifted lower to 3.0200-3.0800.

• Treasuries fell for a third day, pushing the 10-year note yield to a more than seven-month high, after Federal Reserve policy makers said they may end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases sometime in 2013.
  
• U.S. government debt fell earlier as a private report showing companies added more jobs in December boosted speculation tomorrow’s monthly employment report may top forecasts. The yield on the benchmark security rose the most since October yesterday as lawmakers approved a budget averting income-tax increases for more than 99 percent of households, breaking an impasse about how to avert the so-called fiscal cliff. Congress must next tackle the U.S. debt ceiling, which reached its $16.4 trillion limit on Dec. 31.

• German 10-year government bonds declined for a second day as further signs of improvement in the U.S. economy curbed demand for the safest European assets.
  
• Bund yields reached a two-month high after data showed companies in the U.S. added more workers in December than economists forecast.

• French bond rates rose even as borrowing costs fell to a record low at a sale of 10-year securities. Dutch and Finnish government bonds also dropped along with Belgian debt, which slid amid speculation the nation’s debt agency will issue a new 10-year syndicated security this month.

Market Update - 3 Jan 2013

• The ISM manufacturing index improved to 50.7 in December, retracing half of the surprising decline to 49.5 in November, and leaving the index at a level consistent with modest expansion. The improvement was driven mainly by the employment index, which rose to 52.7 from 48.4. The employment index saw more of an impact from Hurricane Sandy than the employment estimates in non-farm payrolls, so the signal for Friday's employment report is weak. Meanwhile, new orders held steady at 50.3, production edged down to 52.6 from 53.7.

• I guess with the new year market is very keen to put on some trades and with the fiscal cliff coming to a first agreement, somewhat…… we saw markets rallied hard overnight, equities rallied while money was fleeing out of the bond markets.

• US stocks surged on cliff deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 308.41 points, or 2.4%. The S&P 500 index rose 36.23 points, or 2.5%, to 1,462.42. The Nasdaq Composite gained 92.75 points, or 3.1%, to 3,112.26.

• European stocks also started the year on a cheery note. The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed 2% to end at 285.33, the highest closing level since February 2011. The FTSE 100 index surged 2.2% to 6,027.37. The DAX 30 index rose 2.2% to 7,778.78. The CAC 40 index rallied 2.6% to 3,733.93.

• USDMYR after 3 months of relative inactivity surged to life yesterday opening at 3.0550 and plunging down to 3.0350 this morning with support for now at 3.0200. Bias for now I would say is on the downside until otherwise proven that their market’s view is wrong, datas are positive and some kind of agreement is reached partially for the fiscal cliff.

• Market prefers some kind of certainty so a deal is better than no deal, even though the deal only address the tax cut but not addressing the spending cuts….yet, so this isn’t the end as there needs to be a USD12bio savings from the tax cut and another USD12bio cut from defense and non defense savings.

• Some details on the proposed deal from yesterday’s sign off from senate:
• The Bush-era income tax rates will be permanently extended for all income up to $400,000 ($450,000 if married). Bush tax cuts that apply to income above those levels will expire.
• Effectively that means for households above those thresholds, their top rate will rise to 39.6%, up from 35% in 2012.
• Plus, the capital gains and dividend tax rates for these high-income households will increase to 20% from 15%. For everyone else, investment tax rates will remain at 15% or below.

• Treasuries fell, with 10-year yields rising the most in more than two months, as demand for the safest securities was curtailed by speculation a budget approved by U.S. lawmakers will sustain the economic expansion. 

• Yields climbed to the highest since Oct. 25 after Congress passed legislation averting income-tax increases for more than 99 percent of households, breaking an impasse about how to avert the so-called fiscal cliff. Lawmakers must next tackle the U.S. debt ceiling, which reached its $16.4 trillion limit on Dec. 31.
  
• Benchmark 10-year yields rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 1.84 percent at 5 p.m. New York time, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data.

• Germany’s bonds slumped, with 10-year yields rising the most in more than three months, after U.S. lawmakers passed a bill undoing income-tax increases that threatened growth in the world’s largest economy.

• Dutch, Finnish and French securities also fell as progress in avoiding the so-called fiscal cliff undermined demand for refuge assets. Italian bonds rallied, with 10-year yields dropping to the lowest level since December 2010, as the budget agreement spurred investor appetite for higher yields. Germany auctioned 4.15 billion euros ($5.5 billion) of two-year notes, with the sale resulting in a yield above zero for the first time since October.

S&P 500 Rallies Most in a Year as Treasuries Drop on Tax Deal

S&P 500 Rallies Most in a Year as Treasuries Drop on Tax Deal


By Michael Shanahan and Inyoung Hwang

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks surged, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest rally in a year, and commodities jumped after Congress passed a bill averting most of the tax increases and spending cuts threatening the recovery in the world's biggest economy. Treasury yields
gained.

The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent to 1,462.42 at 4 p.m. in New York and has increased 4.3 percent in the past two sessions. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2 percent to the highest since February 2011 as equities added to last year's 13 percent global rally. Industrial metals led commodities up and oil advanced to a three-month high. The Dollar Index reversed an early slide, while Treasury 10-year yields climbed eight basis points.

President Barack Obama said he will sign into law the bill undoing tax increases for more than 99 percent of households as Republicans vowed to fight him for spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. An industry report today showed American manufacturing expanded in December at
a pace that shows the industry is stabilizing after reaching a three-year low a month earlier.

"Short-term, a deal is good for the market," Thomas Garcia, head of equity trading at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management Inc., said by telephone. His firm oversees about $80 billion. "Long-term, more has to be done in the way of spending cuts before we can declare victory."

Market Leaders

Gauges of telephone, technology and financial companies climbed at least 2.9 percent to lead gains as all 10 of the S&P 500's main industry groups jumped, sending the gauge to its highest level since Sept. 14. Hewlett-Packard Co., Caterpillar Inc. and AT&T Inc. advanced more than 3.8 percent to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 308.57 points to 13,412.71 for its biggest gain since June.

The S&P 500 rose 1.7 percent on Dec. 31, the biggest end- of-year increase since 1974, in anticipation of a budget deal.

The benchmark index rallied 13 percent in 2012, its best year since 2009 when markets began recovering from the bear market that followed the U.S. financial crisis. The S&P 500 is 0.2 percent below an almost five-year high set in September and needs to rise 7 percent to surpass the all-time record of 1,565.15 reached in October 2007.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, fell 19 percent to 14.68 in New York today. It slumped 35 percent in two days, the most ever. VIX futures trading rose to a record 221,323 contracts today, surpassing the previous high reached Dec. 31, according to the CBOE Futures Exchange.

Manufacturing Expands

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index climbed to 50.7 last month from November's 49.5, which was the weakest since July 2009. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise to 50.5.

"We're catching up to where we would've been had we not had the fiscal cliff drama," James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $325 billion, said in a telephone interview. "We're revaluing the market based on what's closer to the underlying economy and most of the economic reports have been pretty good."

The House's 257-167 bipartisan vote breaks a yearlong impasse over how to head off $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that would have started taking effect yesterday.

While avoiding most of the immediate pain, the measure is only one step toward curbing the federal deficit. The issue will return with a February fight over raising the $16.4 trillion debt limit.

Tax Rates

Under the plan, households making less than $450,000 per year would be spared an income tax-rate increase. The wealthy would see a rise in their top rate, to 39.6 percent, from 35 percent. The top tax rates on capital gains and dividends would go up to 23.8 percent, from 15 percent last year.

For an individual with $10,000 invested in the S&P 500, dividends after taxes would fall to $167.64 a year from $187 at today's payout rate. An investor who sells shares at a $5,000 profit would face capital gains obligations of about $1,190 compared with $750 in 2012.

All 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 advanced during the year's first trading session. The European benchmark jumped 14 percent last year, the biggest increase since 2009. Rio Tinto Group led a rally in mining companies today, rising 5.1 percent.

Porsche SE and Volkswagen AG climbed more than 3 percent to pace gains in automakers.

Europe Output
Euro-area manufacturing output contracted more than initially estimated in December, adding to signs a recession in the currency bloc may extend as leaders struggle to tackle the sovereign-debt crisis. A gauge of manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area fell to 46.1 from 46.2 in November,
London-based Markit Economics said. That's below an initial estimate of 46.3 on Dec. 14. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The cost of insuring against default on European bank debt dropped, with the Markit iTraxx Financial index of credit- default swaps linked to 25 banks and insurers falling 15 basis points to 127.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 2.1 percent, the highest since August 2011. Equity markets in Japan and mainland China were closed today and tomorrow for public holidays.

Developing-nation stocks rose the most since September, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index adding 2.1 percent and the MSCI BRIC Index of the largest emerging markets surging 2.6 percent and extending its gain from a low in June to 22 percent.

Commodities Rally

Eighteen of 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Index advanced, sending the measure up 0.8 percent. Lead, aluminum, nickel and copper jumped at least 3.5 percent. Oil futures in New York climbed 1.4 percent to $93.12 a barrel.

A Chinese manufacturing gauge showed a third month of expansion yesterday. The Purchasing Managers' Index was 50.6 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. That compares with the 51.0 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts and 50.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

China will "step up efforts to promote strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the world economy," President Hu Jintao said in a New Year's Eve  address broadcast on state media. China achieved stable economic development in 2012 and will seek to do the same this year while making restructuring of its growth model a focus, he said.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six major peers, increased 0.1 percent after losing as much as 0.6 percent. The currency strengthened 0.1 percent to $1.3185

The dollar weakened against 12 of its 16 major peers. The yen also slid as investors sought higher-yielding assets and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated his intention to weaken the nation's currency. Japan's currency fell against 15 of 16 major peers, trading near a two-and-a-half-year low versus the dollar.

Treasury 10-year note yields climbed eight basis points to 1.84 percent, the highest since September on a closing basis. The yield on similar-maturity German debt jumped 13 basis points to 1.44 percent while Britain's 10-year rate climbed 16 basis points to 1.99 percent, the largest gains since September for both.

The world's leading economies will have $220 billion less sovereign debt to refinance in 2013, cutting supply after every major government bond market rallied for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

The amount of bills, notes and bonds coming due for the Group of Seven nations plus Brazil, Russia, India and China will drop to $7.38 trillion from $7.60 trillion in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Brazil will see a decline, while the U.S., Canada, Russia, India and China will face an increase.

Market Update - 2 Jan 2013

Wishing you and your family a very Happy New year, may 2013 bring you and your family great health and lots of wealth!!

• Congress seems set to dodge the fiscal cliff, but the respite may be short-lived: spending cuts have been delayed by only 2 months, while the soon-to-be-hit debt ceiling will likely trigger more political tension. In short, the overnight deal from Washington leaves significant fiscal uncertainty hanging over the US economy and markets.

• The Senate last night agreed on a deal to dodge the cliff. The House of Representatives will also need to agree to the deal. According to Bloomberg, it is not clear that the House will agree to the Senate's mix of measures. All these measures are being debated by the lame duck Congress. The new Congress (reflecting the results of the November elections) will be sworn in on 3 January, which may complicate negotiations unless a deal is done beforehand.

• The agreement passed by the Senate involves to two elements of fiscal tightening. First, the payroll tax cut will end; second, the Bush tax cuts will not be extended for incomes over $400,000 ($450,000 for married couples). The automatic across-the-board sequesters (spending cuts) have been delayed by 2 months.

• Singapore likely to have no technical recession, only because Q3 was revised down further to 0% yoy (-6.3% qoq saar).

• In the UK the talk of a triple dip recession is also likely to be avoided as consumer spending accelerates during this festive period.

• China NDS Manufacturing PMI for December at 50.6 (vs. est: 51.0; previous: 50.6). This is a 3rd month of expansion, adding evidence that the recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy will extend into the new year.

• USDMYR opened lower a touch at 3.0500, I reckon from a couple of key drivers, over the New Year there seems to be progress on the fiscal cliff but the Republicans have not agreed to the terms yet, and the other factor is likely the positive datas that came out, China manufacturing accelerating, UK consumer spending improved, Singapore avoiding technical recession and I guess in general market needs something to trade on hence the slightly lower USDMYR. 3.0500 seem to be a support level we I reckon for now the 3.0300-3.0800 will hold till we get further clarity.

• The fiscal cliff would hog the headlines to start 2013 and we will take the lead from the discussion to kick start the year and the direction on the markets.