Tuesday 27 November 2012

Market Update - 28 November 2012

Durable goods orders was better than expected and consumer confidence was stronger at 73.7 versus 73.0. Equities attempted a late day rally but the S&P failed to break back above 1,404.

Gold and Crude fell 0.40% each to 1742 and 87.40 respectively. Euro traded steadily lower throughout the day just below 1.3000 while AUDUSD is trading in the 1.0400-1.0500 range.

USDMYR had a mini move yesterday dipping towards 3.0400 before opening higher again today at 3.0500. As we enter the last month of 2012, volumes that are already low will likely be even lower.

I think the only event that could move USDMYR is the Dollar fiscal cliff decision, if US doesn’t come up with some concrete solution market might have priced in some of it, but if the decision they make will result in a recession then maybe USDMYR might rally. Anyway my 2 cents is no decision form them come year end and postponed to 2013…..
The US Treasury’s semi-annual FX report has NOT labeled China a currency manipulator, albeit stating that the CNY remains ‘significantly’ undervalued, although this had limited impact on mkts. Note the yuan “has appreciated by 9.3 percent in nominal terms and 12.6 percent in real terms against the dollar since June 2010,” the Treasury said.

The funny thing is US calls China a currency manipulator but what is the US doing printing so much money all these while, remember QE? They are devaluing the US Dollars also, talk about the kettle calling the pot black….. never fails to amuse me, and if PBoC starts to print money, I wonder what will US say??

My view is that PBoC will continue with a relative "hand-off" stance to advocate a market driven currency, with its late behavior shift could well presage further FX reforms in the coming months. It is also interesting to see US treasury takes pressure off other major trading partners as well, which potentially include other big Asia surplus economies including Japan and Korea.

Dollar Gains on Concern Greek Debt Deal Will Stall, Fiscal Cliff

By Allison Bennett and Neal Armstrong

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar gained from almost a one- month low versus the euro as concern a deal for Greece to buy back its bonds may falter while U.S. lawmakers struggled to reach a budget consensus boosted haven demand.

The Swedish krona declined at least 0.5 percent versus all of its major peers after consumer confidence was weaker than forecast. The greenback extended gains against the majority of its 16 most-traded counterparts after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he is "disappointed" in the lack of progress in discussions to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. The euro weakened with higher-yielding assets after policy makers released the plan that will allow Greece to receive its next aid payment.

"The amount of debt relief from elements of the program, such as the bond buyback, are questionable," said Aroop Chatterjee, a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in New York.
"No actual money was released either by the European Union or the IMF, and the proposed release next month is also conditional. There is no guarantee that this will happen when Dec. 13 rolls around."

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.2943 per euro at 5 p.m. New York time after dropping to $1.3009, the weakest since Oct. 31. The euro declined 0.1 percent to 106.34 yen after rising as much as 0.5
percent. The Japanese currency was 0.1 percent weaker at 82.15 yen per dollar.

Krona, Peso

The krona fell for the first time in five days against the euro, declining 0.9 percent to 8.6526, after consumer confidence fell for a fourth month in November. The central bank signaled it may cut interest rates next month for a fourth time since December as it predicts the Nordic region's
largest economy will suffer from falling demand from Europe.

Mexico's peso rose as much as 0.4 percent to 12.9597 per dollar after bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the U.S., its biggest export market, rose 1.7 percent last month, the most since May, the Commerce Department reported. The peso erased gains after Reid's comments,
declining 0.2 percent to 13.0403.

Sterling strengthened after a report confirmed Britain's economy exited a double-dip recession in the third quarter. The pound added 0.2 percent to 80.78 pence per euro. The U.K. currency was little changed at $1.6022 after rising to $1.6056, the highest since Nov. 2.

The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against currencies of six U.S. trading partners, added 0.1 percent to 80.346 after falling as much as
0.3 percent. It rose after consumer confidence in November reached the highest since February 2008, according to the Conference Board's confidence index.

Fiscal Cliff

"We only have a couple weeks to get something done, so we have to get away from the happy talk" and do "specific things," Reid said to reporters today. "We could have prevented this crisis months ago by simply adopting what we passed in the Senate."

Lawmakers are trying to avert a collection of $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2013 to prevent a short-term shock to the economy and reach an agreement on long-term deficit reduction.

The U.S. currency will appreciate against all of its Group of 10 counterparts except the Canadian dollar by 2014, as America weathers the fiscal cliff and its economy expands 2 percent, more than the 1.26 percent G-10 average, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Not 'Enthused'

In the latest bid to keep the 17-nation euro zone intact, policy makers cut the rates on Greece's bailout loans, suspended its interest payments for a decade, gave it more time to repay and engineered a Greek bond buyback. The country was also cleared to receive a 34.4 billion-euro ($44.7 billion) loan installment in December.

"Market participants are not overly enthused by the tentative deal reached between euro-area finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund after several rounds of protracted negotiations to ease Greece's bailout terms,"

Samarjit Shankar, a managing director for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, wrote to clients today.

The parliaments of three of the euro area's AAA rated countries -- Germany, Finland and the Netherlands -- insisted on approving the accord, with Dec. 13 set as the deadline for a formal decision to unlock the next Greek aid tranche.

"If things are muddling along in Europe and things are muddling along in the U.S. and we get a deal for the fiscal cliff, focus is going to shift away from here to Japan," said Fabian Eliasson, head of U.S. currency sales at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. in New York.

The euro has risen 2.4 percent in the past three months, still the best performer among 10 developed-market currencies, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar is 1 percent weaker and the yen has fallen 5.8 percent, to lead decliners.

Market Update - 27 November2012

Last night, Eurozone and IMF finally agreed to yet another new agreement towards giving new and badly needed funds to Greece, but market reacted little as I reckon most of it has been priced in.

EURUSD moved from 1.2800-1.3030 while AUDUSD moved from 1.0400 to 1.0500 in what was a relatively “large” move given the relative inactivity in markets lately.

Dow Jones was up 0.19% to 12,961 while S&P was up 0.24% at 1,406.40. For those who have not been following the Asian equity markets the “star” right now is probably Olam, Singapore’s largest commodity trader and the world’s second largest ruice trader. Muddy Waters LLC have accused Olam of inaccurater accounting practice in how it values it’s future crops and inflate it’s profit and valuation and Olam have since denied it and sued Muddy Waters….quite interesting to keep in touch.

USDMYR also opened just a at lower at the support level of 3.0500 and as we move into December, I would say expect the last 5 weeks of 2012 to have low volumes and I can’t see where the drastic moves might come from aside from some window dressing for the year end.

Might be a little too early to talk about 2013, but I reckon 2013 will have lots of volatility from the start, maybe as early as January; as approvals from EU and IMF is met by deteriorating European datas, while improving US datas are met with how to resolve a Fiscal Cliff and not trigger a recession, finally new Chinese government so far seems very cautious when the world rely on the only powerhouse to carry them out of this trough.

We might have seen the worse but don’t expect overnight recovery, in fact the road to recovery is likely going to be a very choppy one.

The appointment of the current Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to replace Mervyn King as the next Bank of England Governor caught markets by surprise. The initial GBP reaction was positive, and we believe this is justified by Mark Carney's solid reputation and recent track record.

Monday 26 November 2012

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-25 November 2012

SGS (1-25Nov) = 1256492 v 1280652(down 1.9%)

Sunday 25 November 2012

Market Update 26 November 2012

EZ FinMin’s hold teleconference on Saturday to discuss Greece. The Ministers along with IMF and ECB representatives will meet on Monday again where they are expected to approve the next tranche of aid for Greece and a plan to relieve Greece's unsustainable debt burden. One report suggests deal is close at hand due to IMF agreeing to be more flexible on debt targets

Risk sentiment has improved, and is taking a toll on core bond markets. However, negotiations on the US fiscal cliff and Greek debt are making risky assets vulnerable to another decline in risk appetite. Yields in Germany and France could rise further near term, but Fed buying should counter the bearish bias in the back end of the US next week.

However, the risk rally occurred amid low volume as investors appear unwilling to commit to large positions given unresolved fiscal cliff concerns. There has been precious little progress on fiscal talks since John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, declared opening talks with Obama “constructive” more than a week ago.

USDMYR for a change actually opened lower at 3.0500 as risk appetite returned, but not sure for how long, but we are still likely stuck in the 3.0400-3.0800 trading range. Possible buy on dips today likely to give some support on downside, expecting low trading volumes and narrow trading range.

All eyes will on the fiscal cliff talks in Washington to avoid a fiscal tightening induced recession. Recent risk rally and USD weakness highlight growing market hope that some form of fiscal cliff compromise is possible before year end although it is equally possible that the negotiations may prove more protracted than hope.

Malaysia Palm Oil ITS Data 1-25 November 2012

ITS (1-25 Nov) = 1276792 v 1300495(down1.82%)

How Vulnerable is Your Child’s Natural Body Resistance?

A child’s natural body resistance works the same way as an adult’s, only that it is not yet mature enough to fight off sickness and disease. You might be wondering why your child gets cough and colds all the time. That’s because his natural body resistance hasn’t built up a strong defense yet that will shield the body from viruses and bacteria.

Your child’s natural body resistance is always in the process of learning which microorganisms, the bacteria that live inside our bodies, are beneficial and which are harmful. So how vulnerable is your child’s natural body resistance?

The answer is: Very.

Without a healthy natural body resistance, children are more prone to sickness and disease. Viruses and bad bacteria enter the body through the food your child eats, or when he puts in his mouth a dirty hand or toy.

Aside from poor diet and unhealthy personal hygiene, stress is another factor that curbs the natural body resistance’s ability to protect the body from intruders. When a child is under stress, his body prepares for the fight or flight moment, but most of the time there is no imminent danger. A child’s natural body resistance weakens as it is suppressed during a stressful moment¹.

Consequently, when a child is under stress, he may find it difficult to fall asleep easily. This prevents the body from properly making new white blood cells that will fight off intruders.

Children who have recently taken antibiotics to ward off infections or allergies also have weaker natural body resistance. Antibiotics may kill the bad bacteria that cause sickness, but they also eliminate the good ones which are responsible for keeping the natural body resistance healthy².

One interesting theory raised in the medical field supposes that children raised in extremely sterile environments are more prone to illness. This may come off as a surprise, but the fact is, children who have not encountered different viruses and bacteria in their lifetime may find it difficult later on to conquer a sickness or disease³.

So what’s a parent to do? Aside from having your children vaccinated against a wide range of diseases, parents also need to make sure that their children are eating the right kinds of food, are reasonably hygienic, and have plenty of exercise and rest.

There is no magic solution to defending against illnesses, but you can always help your child build a stronger natural defense against sickness and disease.

Less Sleep = Impaired Development

Waking up to our Children’s Unhealthy Sleep Deficit

The amount of sleep that our children have been getting is become a cause for concern. According to 2007 survey given to 997 Malaysian parents with children aged 0-3 years old, the average amount of sleep that their kids got at night was just 9 hours, which is much lower than the recommended value. 44% of respondents also mentioned that their child was suffering from sleeping problems. A 2011 report also says that 14.5% of children in Hospital Kuala Terengganu snore, which could be signs of sleep-disordered breathing. With the clear correlation of sleep disorders to a stunted developmental growth, in terms of learning and attention span, there is a call for us to wake up and turn our children’s sleep health around.

Less Sleep = Impaired Development

Contrary to adults, children who are sleep deprived actually tend to become more hyperactive, which has a tendency to make them more irritable and inattentive. Sleep deprivation with kids also affects overall attention and limits their ability to learn and concentrate. Kids become are at risk of falling sick which leads to extended absences in school. Other negative correlations include weight gain, physical inactivity and reduced cognitive functioning. The good news, however, is that sleep problems for kids are easily treatable through good bedtime habits.

Putting in the hours

The amount of sleep needed actually depends on the age of the child. Below is a breakdown per age segment as well as some sleeping tips:

The schedule for newborns is often irregular, so don’t stress if that is the case with your little one! Sometimes sleep can last for a few minutes and other times for several hours. It is advised that you place your newborn on the bed as soon as sleepiness is seeming to set in, as it teaches him to get himself to sleep. You can also condition your little one to stay up more during the day by exposing him to light and noise, and by playing with him during the day. At night, just make sure that things are quieter, darker and less active. Remember, it is never too early to start reading nightly bed time stories!

3-11 Months = 14-15 hours per day

Infants will typically be sleeping 9-12 hours at night with 30-120 minute daytime naps about 1-4 times/day. As mentioned, putting your child to bed when he seems sleepy but not yet asleep encourages him to be “self-soothers,” enabling your infant to fall asleep independently and go back to sleep on his own when he wakes at night. At this stage, you should start establishing bedtime schedules. A bath before bed is often a good routine to help establish that it is “bed time”.

1-3 Years = 12-14 hours

Toddlers will need almost the same amount of sleep at night as infants do but naps are will start to reduce to once a day, lasting for 1-3 hours. At this stage, don’t be surprised if you encounter some sleep difficulties such as resistance to go to bed, night fears, and nightmares. The recommendation is to stick to the schedules and routines you’ve established them, Although it is easier said than done, be sure to communicate and enforce these routines! Establishing security objects such as blankets or stuff toys will help alleviate any night-related fears. Of course, bed time stories are a perfect way to end a crazy day and will be for years to come!

3-5 Years = 11-13 hours

The hours of sleep here usually all happen at night, as naps are typically phased out by now. At this age, your preschooler’s developing imaginations may cause more night-related fears and nightmares which can be solved by making soothing and consistent bedtime routines.

5-12 Years = 10-11 hours

Believe it or not, sleep disorders can be very common in this stage. In addition to the usual sleep barriers associated with anxiety and nightmares, research shows that kids at this age often start to over engage with media such as TV, Internet and video games as well as consume caffeinated products. The best way to deal with this is to limit these things in the evening and to continue encouraging a regular sleeping routine. Even kids at this age love a nice read-aloud with mom and dad before bed time! Get lost in a good chapter book together!

Friday 23 November 2012

Market Update - 23 November 2012

Wall Street was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday yesterday.

China showed further signs of the Chinese economy bottoming out with the flash PMI soared to 50.4 from Oct’s 49.5.

Eurozone remained below its 50 handle with its Eurozone flash PMI edging up marginally from 45.7 in Oct to 45.8 and consumer confidence falling to a 42-month low.

EU leaders began their two-day summit yesterday to discuss a new seven year budget for the bloc. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel says that EU leaders unlikely to reach budget deal at the summit.

Expectations for swings in the yuan climbed the most in the world in the past three months, sparking a rally in dim sum bonds as the central bank signaled a wider limit on daily exchange rate moves

Asian stocks outside Japan fell, with a regional gauge heading for its first decline this week, as European official continue to work on an updated aid package for Greece

KLCI sustained decline (-0.27%) to 1,618.55, the lowest since July this year. Losses were led by Genting Plantations, CIMB and RHB Capital.

USD/MYR has been range trading for the past week, likely range for today: 3.0550 – 3.0650

Market Update - 22 November 2012

The negative reaction to the postponement of the decision on Greece by the eurozone finance ministers proved to be short-lived. Comments from Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble who said there were only "technical questions" to be solved probably helped to ease market fears.

EU president Juncker also said there were no major political disagreements. The main measures under consideration include using EUR 9bn to buy back bonds at between 30 and 35 cents in the euro. There were also proposals to reduce the interest rate on loans already extended by euro zone countries to Greece from 1.5% to just 0.25% (but Germany opposed such a step).

USDMYR little moved, and I’m sorry if the updates on USDMYR is the same daily that’s cause there really isn’t anything happening to USDMYR and our local space, the only thing on the horizon is our elections and honestly I haven’t got a clue when this will be despite having countless conversation on this topic with various people. Expect trading range to be in 3.0300-3.0800 for rest of the month.

Thursday will see the release of the November 'flash' PMI data, where we see the manufacturing index rising slightly to 45.6 and the services index falling to 45.5. Although these readings would support the view that the contraction in the eurozone economy is likely to accelerate in Q4, fading global risks and the Fed's aggressive policy easing should be conducive to a stronger EURUSD.
The BoE minutes were in line with Governor King's comments at the release of the Inflation Report last week, indicating that the BoE is in wait-and-see mode at the moment but that further QE next year remains a possibility. One new development is that the MPC discussed whether an appreciation of sterling could damage the supply side of the economy, leading to softer growth and higher unemployment.

October Japanese trade data provided an excuse to push USDJPY higher to a new seven-month high. Markets remain firmly focused on the prospects for a more aggressive post-election BoJ monetary policy stance, implying that the JPY is likely to remain vulnerable in the near term. But we emphasize again that previous BOJ asset purchases have not been successful at weakened the JPY on a sustained basis.
News that Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire in talks brokered by Egypt’s Islamist leaders and the US has lent support to risk sentiment. With US Thanks Giving holiday today, we expect markets to be a quiet one. The big move overnight being USDJPY – the pair broke sharply above the 82.00 to 82.50.

China: November HSBC Flash manufacturing PMI due at 9.45am (GMT+8) will be a key watch today. Prior print stands at 49.5. Given that the economy has bottomed in Q3, a better than expected manufacturing PMI is likely. An improvement above the expansionary mark should help sustain the positive risk sentiment..

Tuesday 20 November 2012

Market Update - 21 November 2012

· Treasuries fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said an agreement to reduce long-term U.S. deficits may remove an impediment to economic growth and crimp haven demand. U.S. 10-year note yields rose to a one-week high after a report showed housing starts unexpectedly increased last month to a four-year high.

· Ben Bernanke says there could be a very good year ahead if an agreement is struck to tackle the fiscal cliff, still early days but headlines are powerful market movers these days. The benchmark 10-year yield increased five basis points, or 0.05%, to 1.67 percent at 4:59 p.m. in New York.

· USDMYR still pretty muted opening at 3.0580, I’d like to quote a colleague of mine yesterday “December and X’mas came early to the markets this year” for those who are unfamiliar, December is typically a quiet month but this year November have already kick started the quiet period. USDMYR trading range 3.0300-3.0800.

· France’s government bonds fell, with 10-year yields rising the most more than in six weeks, after Moody’s Investors Service lowered the nation’s top credit rating, citing a worsening economic growth outlook. Greek and Portuguese debt advanced as European finance ministers prepare to meet in Brussels today to discuss aid for Greece.

· RBA, did hint of one more 25bps cut to the Aussie benchmark rates and personally I think they are not calling a bluff. I reckon the cut should come in December and that would pretty much be if for the short term from RBA as we wait and see how 2013 turns out to be. Current Aussie rate is at 3.00%

· For those following the Israel Gaza dispute, it seems there is little signs of a truce as the missles continue to pour and Israelsays they favour a peaceful settlement but they are all ready to invade if required.

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-20 November 2012

SGS (1-20 Nov) = 1010417 v 1050548(down 3.8%)

Monday 19 November 2012

Malaysia Palm Oil ITS Data 1-20 November 2012

ITS (1-20 Nov) = 1023517 v 1058844(down 3.34%)

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-15 November 2012

SGS (1-15 Nov) = 759452 v 768550(down 1.18%)

Wednesday 14 November 2012

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-10 November 2012

SGS (1-10 Nov) = 514798v 420758(up 22.35%)

Tuesday 13 November 2012

Malaysia Palm Oil ITS Data 1-10 November 2012

ITS (1-10 Nov) = 518688 v 448624(up 15.62%)

Thursday 8 November 2012

How Vulnerable is Your Child’s Natural Body Resistance?

Wednesday 7 November 2012

Doctors recommend sucking of breast to reduce breast cancer

This news was culled from BBC and according to BBC News, doctors have recommended that women can reduce their risk of getting breast cancer by having their breasts thoroughly and vigorously sucked.

The doctors said that regular sucking of the breast lowers the risk level that tends to build lumps, leading to breast cancer. Vigorously according to dictionary.com means "powerful in action, forceful and energetic"

BuniBuni.com have not conducted our own medical research on this but if BBC is right, then we will have to advise our dear men to do their part and save a life. by sucking a breast today.

Waking up to our Children’s Unhealthy Sleep Deficit

Less Sleep = Impaired Development

Putting in the hours

The amount of sleep needed actually depends on the age of the child. Below is a breakdown per age segment as well as some sleeping tips:

3-11 Months = 14-15 hours per day

1-3 Years = 12-14 hours

3-5 Years = 11-13 hours

5-12 Years = 10-11 hours

A Checklist For Mums-To-Be

By Sujatha Rajagopal

Important little details, from trimester one to delivery day

Discovering that you are pregnant can be one of the most exciting, yet confusing, period in your life. Once you’ve done the most obvious — find a doctor to take care of your pregnancy and childbirth needs — you may feel at a loss as to what to do next. Your mind is probably besieged by so many questions: What should I eat? When should I start shopping for maternity clothes? What will I need during my hospital stay?

We hope the following guidelines will help take away some of the guesswork.

Trimester One

Eat healthily, drink aplenty: It is never too early or late to start pumping more wholesome nutrients into your diet. Try to eat as much of fresh fruit and vegetables as you can. Eat plenty of iron-rich food too, such as whole grains and beans. Opt for more low-fat protein from lean poultry and seafood and complex carbohydrates from brown rice and whole wheat bread. Finally, try to cut down on high-fat, high-sugar and salty or cured food. At the same time, don’t forget to drink at least eight glasses of water a day to reduce the risk of swollen ankles and feet.

Ask your doctor which multivitamin is right for you: Ideally, you (and your baby) should be able to get all the nutrients you need from your daily diet. But pregnancy brings with it problems like nausea, vomiting and exhaustion, which tend to affect appetite. A multivitamin tablet or capsule therefore, can be rather convenient. Apart from folic acid, do ensure that you are getting sufficient antioxidants, calcium, zinc and iron. Always consult your doctor before buying nutritional supplements on your own.

Buy a few good pregnancy books: Each week of pregnancy brings with it slight changes inside your womb. Wondering what’s going on? Don’t wait for monthly ultrasounds to find out. Most major bookstores carry numerous titles on pregnancy and childbirth, so invest in one or two and dive in!

Get yourself a good calendar: Preferably one with large date boxes. Pregnancy makes remembering dates a necessity. Some important dates to record include your due date, dates for prenatal appointments and scans, dates for special tests if any and of course, that all-important date when you feel baby’s first kick.

Think about starting a pregnancy diary: This can be a special journal set aside for you to pen your daily thoughts and pregnancy experiences. Or it can serve as a book of letters that you write to your baby, telling him how you spent your nine months while awaiting his arrival. Or it can serve as both. Ask hubby to take a picture of you each month as your belly grows and put these snapshots in as well.

Trimester Two

Start budgeting for baby’s arrival: A little baby consumes a lot of milk, uses about 10 to 12 diapers a day, and needs other essentials like feeding bottles, toys, immunisations, well-baby check-ups and so on — all of which cost money. On top of that, you’ll need to start shopping for baby furniture too. By working out your finances sooner, you will be better prepared for any emergencies.

Start looking for childbirth classes: Sign up in advance if you want to know more about birthing positions and breathing exercises. Also, consider getting lessons on caring for infants or infant first-aid.

Exercise: Now that most pregnancy discomfort like nausea and heartburn should have abated, it’s a good time to start exercising regularly. Look for yoga, dance, aerobics or swimming classes designed for pregnant women. If cost is an issue, find a pleasant park close to where you live and take a leisurely walk at least three times a week. Or use housework as your exercise opportunity. Blast some music while you dust, vacuum and mop, but remember to take it easy.

Review your company’s maternity policies: Verify when and how to apply for maternity leave and other details like how much you can claim, whether your employer practises childcare relief policies, how much emergency leave you can take and so on. It is also a good time to discuss and plan out work responsibilities with the person who will take over while you are on leave.

Shortlist baby names: You would probably already know the sex of your child at this stage, so it’s a good time to start writing down some of your favourite names. You can always decide on the right one with your partner later.

Shop for baby: Start looking around for baby’s clothing, feeding bottles and toys. Once you’ve determined whether your child is a boy or a girl, you might feel like doing a few gender-specific things like getting the nursery painted blue or buying a pretty pink frock. Be sure to read the article on Baby Essentials for more ideas.

Shop for you: For most women, now is when pre-pregnancy clothes start to feel a little tight, especially around the belly. Here is what you should get:

Fashionable maternity wear: loose-fitting blouses and tees, side-tab trousers and skirts with underbelly support, and denim dungarees.

Comfortable lingerie: well-fitting bra (usually a size bigger that what you usually wear), maternity underwear, stretchable tights or shorts. Buy a few nursing bras closer to your due date for use after baby is born.

Other clothing: Roomy nightshirts or pyjamas, a larger sweater.

Other essentials: Support stockings to prevent varicose veins, pampering toiletries, well-padded cushions or pillows.

Trimester Three

Make your home safer: One of the first things you should do now is place a non-slip mat under rugs and carpets so that you do not accidentally slip and hurt yourself as you grow heavier with child. Also, invest in a first-aid kit and a fire extinguisher and smoke detector. Keep hospital and other emergency numbers right next to your telephone.

Organize your memories: Once baby is born, your hands will be too full to begin organising all the new photos you’ll be taking. So start now. Buy some photo albums and photo-editing software, and consider signing up for free online photo-sharing tools. You can also start buying the supplies you will need to put together a memory box or scrapbook (see Collecting Little Memories). You can also start preparing baby announcement cards and envelopes.

Find out more about labour pain: Read up about Braxton-Hicks contractions, a key culprit in causing false alarms. You could also consider practising the breathing exercises that are used during labour. Ask your doctor or childbirth coach for advice.

Confide your doubts and worries in your spouse: It is easy to get carried away with your anxiety about childbirth and parenting. Don’t forget that your spouse may be having the same concerns. Have a quiet moment together at least once a week to discuss your worries as well as thoughts and plans for the future.

Familiarise yourself with the labour ward: Ask your doctor if you can have a tour of the labour ward and delivery room. Ask about what you’ll need to do and the forms you’ll need to fill up on admission day. Find out where the nursery is. Enquire about the special neonatal wards and visiting rules just in case your child needs to be placed under close observation after delivery. Start writing a birthing plan if you have specific requirements during delivery.

Be good to yourself: Childbirth and the weeks to come may drain you emotionally and physically. So have the time of your life while you can. Vent out any pent up emotions with your mother or friends. Get a pregnancy massage, a manicure or pedicure. Have romantic dinners with your hubby, watch a movie together, have a baby shower… have fun!

Start getting ready for baby: Ensure that all the necessary baby furniture is in place and stock up on formula, bottles, diapers, baby wipes and other baby essentials. And yes… decide on a name!

Make arrangements: If you have other children, look for reliable day and night care as well as someone to cook and clean while you are away. Decide who will be with you during labour and how you are going to cope with meals and housework after your discharge from the hospital. Stock up on dry and canned food. You can also prepare meals ahead of time and freeze them.

What to pack for the hospital

It’s a good idea to pack your hospital bag two to three weeks before your due date, just in case baby intends to arrive earlier. You will need the following during your stay:

Your identification card or papers and prenatal health records.
A nightgown or two, although most hospitals provide a comfortable hospital gown.
Nursing bras for breastfeeding.
Maternity sanitary pads and underwear.
Socks and slippers to warm your feet.
A favourite pillow and blanket to make your room or cubicle feel more like home.
A photograph of your family for reassurance or even as a focal point during childbirth.
Some pregnancy-safe massage oil or aromatherapy oils to calm your nerves.
Personal care items like lip balm, toothbrush and toothpaste, soap, shampoo, hairbrush and face and body moisturisers.
Snacks for you and your partner in case you’re both too weary to walk to the hospital cafeteria.
Spare change for hospital vending machine snacks or drinks.
CD player and your favourite CDs as well as a book or magazine to wile away the time.
A camera, some lipstick and face powder for Kodak moments.
One or two newborn outfits for your baby as well as mittens, booties and a receiving blanket to keep her warm. Diapers will usually be provided.
Clothes for use when you are discharged. You may not be able to fit into pre-pregnancy clothes so pack a set of maternity wear just in case.
An extra duffel bag to bring home gift hampers and possibly, various formula or diaper samples that are usually given away at hospitals.
A baby car seat.

Pregnancy can be an emotionally uncertain time for you and the rest of your family. For health issues, always ask your doctor if you are unsure about anything. Otherwise, tap into the wealth of resources available from your local library, bookstore or the Internet. Speak to your mother or a friend with kids for a better idea of what’s in store during these nine months. Being prepared will help to answer all your questions. Also, don’t forget to take this time to enjoy life! It’s not always that you are pregnant!

Treasuries Gain on Obama Vote, Head for Biggest Gain in a Week

By Wes Goodman

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, headed for the biggest gain in a week, as President Barack Obama's election to a second term bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will stick to its policy of buying bonds to support the economy.

Obama, a Democrat, backs the Fed, which has purchased $2.3 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-related bonds and instituted plans to purchase $40 billion of home-loan securities a month.
Republican challenger Mitt Romney said he wouldn't reappoint Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to a third term in 2014. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $24 billion of 10-year notes today.

"With Obama winning, we can expect the Fed to carry out current monetary policy," said Hajime Nagata, who helps oversee the equivalent of $129.4 billion as an investor in Tokyo at Diam Co., a unit of Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co., Japan's second- biggest life insurer. "The Fed is committed
to a low interest- rate environment. If Romney had won, it would have been a game changer."

U.S. 10-year yields slid six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 1.69 percent as of 6:26 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 1.625 percent security due in August 2022 climbed 18/32, or $5.63 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 14/32. It was set for the biggest gain since Oct. 26.

Japan's 10-year rate was unchanged at 0.76 percent. It was 0.755 percent earlier Tokyo trading, matching the lowest level since August.

Election History

Ever since Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater for the presidency in 1964, yields on 10-year Treasuries have dropped about 40 basis points in the first month when a Democrat wins, and risen 19 after a Republican victory, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The central bank announced its third round of bond purchases under its quantitative easing policy, known on QE3, on Sept. 13, saying it will buy agency mortgage-backed securities until the outlook for the labor market improves "substantially."

"The Romney camp is much more nervous about QE3 and an unconventional Fed than the Obama camp," Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said this week. A Romney victory would have created "a lot more uncertainty about monetary policy," El-Erian said Nov. 5 in an interview with Bloomberg Television's Maryam Nemazee.

Pimco, based in Newport Beach, California, runs the world's biggest bond fund.

Operation Twist

The Fed is also swapping shorter-term Treasuries in its holdings with those due in 6 to 30 years as part of its efforts to support the economy by putting downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs.

The central bank plans to buy as much as $2.25 billion of Treasuries maturing from February 2036 to August 2042 today, according to the Fed Bank of New York's website.

It is scheduled to sell as much as $8 billion of debt due from May 2014 to April 2015, the website shows.

"Treasury yields will go down" on an Obama victory, said Kim Youngsung, head of fixed income in Seoul at Samsung Asset Management Co., South Korea's largest private bond investor with the equivalent of $103.8 billion, speaking prior to Obama's victory.

Ten-year yields, benchmarks for mortgages to corporate bonds, dropped 19 basis points this year. They have tumbled 69 basis points since Obama took office on Jan. 20, 2009.

Treasuries have returned 1.8 percent in 2012 and 15 percent since the inauguration, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.

Greek Vote

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras faces a test of his coalition government today as he seeks parliamentary approval of austerity measures to unlock bailout funds amid the third general strike in six weeks and defections from his three-party coalition.

The U.S. Treasury Department sold $32 billion of three-year notes yesterday and is scheduled to conclude this week's auctions with a $16 billion 30-year bond sale tomorrow.

The last auction of 2022 Treasuries on Oct. 10 drew bids for 3.26 times the amount of debt offered, versus the average of 3.08 for the previous 10 auctions.

Yesterday's three-year sale drew a yield of 0.392 percent, compared with a forecast of 0.383 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 9 of the Fed's 21 primary dealers, those companies that underwrite the U.S. debt. Investors submitted bids for 3.41 times the debt available, the least since April.

Indirect bidders, the investor class that includes foreign central banks, purchased 25.1 percent of the notes, the smallest amount since May 2007.

Dollar Falls as Obama Re-Election Paves Way for Monetary Easing

By Monami Yui and Mariko Ishikawa

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened on speculation President Barack Obama's re-election victory will boost chances the U.S. will continue monetary stimulus policies that tend to weaken the currency.

The dollar reversed earlier gains versus the euro after Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to television network projections that show the incumbent winning the electoral votes needed for re-election. The Australian dollar rose for a third day as Asian stocks advanced. Demand for the euro was limited as Greece headed for a vote on austerity measures needed to keep its bailout on track.

"Monetary policy will remain loose under Obama so the dollar will be sold," said Michiyoshi Kato, senior vice president of foreign-currency sales in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's third-largest bank by market value.

"Dollar selling may not last that long as the U.S. faces the fiscal cliff," he said, referring to more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that will be implemented in 2013 unless Congress acts.

The dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.2861 per euro as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier gaining as much as 0.2 percent. It declined 0.4 percent to 80.07 yen. The euro was little changed at 102.99 yen, after touching 102.18 yesterday, matching the lowest since Oct. 16. The so-called Aussie advanced 0.2 percent to $1.0454. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares climbed 0.6 percent.

Obama was projected the winner in the battleground states of Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia. He also won Pennsylvania, where Romney made a last-minute bid for support to try to derail the president's path to re- election.

Count Continues
Votes were still being tallied in Florida, with the race too close to call in that battleground.

Romney had said he disagrees with the Federal Reserve measures to stimulate the economy and would replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the end of his term in January 2014.

The extra yield investors demand to hold two-year Treasuries instead of similar-maturity Japanese notes dropped to 17 basis points, the least since Oct. 16, curbing the allure of the dollar over the yen.

"Obama's re-election is likely to boost expectations of continued easing by the Fed," said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. "If it leads to lower U.S. yields and higher stock prices, the bias will be for the dollar-yen to fall."

Greek Vote

In Greece, the 238 pages of austerity measures, ranging from raising the retirement age two years to 67 to eliminating Christmas and holiday payments for pensioners, will be debated in the 300-seat Parliament from 10 a.m. Athens time with a roll- call vote expected after 8 p.m. today. Approval of the legislation is the first of the parliamentary votes required by Nov. 12 to unlock a 31 billion-euro ($40 billion) portion of international aid.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras must stem defections from his three-party coalition to convince European Union leaders that his government is serious about staying in the euro and implementing reforms. The government has lost as many as four supporters since being formed in June, with the latest defection coming from Socialist Pasok, which provides Samaras with the votes he needs for his majority in Parliament. Demand for the euro was also hampered before data today that may add to evidence that the region's debt woes are weakening its core economies.

Europe's Economy
German industrial production probably fell for a second month in September, decreasing 0.7 percent from the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report may show euro-area retail sales slid 0.1 percent in September, according to another poll.

Europe's shared currency declined 1.1 percent over the past month, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The dollar added 0.5 percent and the yen fell 1.5 percent.

"Europe's problems are far from being resolved," said Marito Ueda, senior managing director in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp., a currency-margin company. "There is a good chance that we see a sell-off in the euro when they return to the center stage."

Tuesday 6 November 2012

Market Update - 7 November 2012

Was hoping to wake up and all the votes would be in but it’s gonna take longer than expected. So headline watching today as news trickles out about the US election results, just remember the 2000 election took weeks to resolve after it was too close to call.

USDMYR also trading with a slight risk on as the elections and weeks of uncertainty is coming to a close, if no dispute or nothing unexpected happens. USDMYR likely to trade in the tight range of 3.0400-3.0800

Markets overnight traded in a fashion consistent with an Obama victory (Intrade have a 70% of Obama winning) although it is still too early to tell; The US dollar was weaker except vs the Yen where it seems months of dithering over how to weaken the currency may finally be starting to work for policy makers there, next BOJ event 20/11 but they may not wait that long .

Gold put on 1.8% or $30 to close $1714.32 while other commodities tracked higher with copper up 1.1% and oil rose 3% to $88.29.

The S&P and the DOW close higher by about 1%, led by oil & gas stocks and financials after it became clear yesterday that Basel 3 implementation would be delayed by at least 6 months.

We had services PMI figures out of Europe and they did nothing to dispel my fears that Q4 is going to be tough across the board; Spain and Italy beat expectations but are mired in contractionary territory while the German and French indices are both sat at their lowest levels since the depth of the GFC (and France is not far of that low either). Anyway, the equity markets clung to the stronger peripheral figures and were helped by a €20b tax break package announced by the French PM.

German factory orders fell 3.3% mom versus a survey of -0.4% and -0.8% last month, ouch.

The Eurostoxx rose 0.73% while the currency was slightly firmer while peripheral spreads narrowed slightly. Spain seems to have gone very quiet vis a bailout where if we don’t get an announcement at next week’s summit the markets will be straight back onto them while Greece takes the headlines for now with a pivotal vote in their parliament tonight (by the way the Greek 10yr yield fell 65bps on the secondary market overnight...).

US treasuries were soft as money switched from notes (+5.6bps) to bunds (+1bp) and the spread there reached the 30pt technical level as fears about congressional intransigence vis the fiscal cliff if Obama should win hurt sentiment.

The 5am US 3yr auction saw BTC 3.41 vs 3.97 last, Indirect Bidders took 25.1% vs 28.8% last, High Yield 0.392% vs 0.346% last. No immediate reaction, TYZ2 later drifts off 4 ticks over the hour but hardly looked tender related.

The European Commission came out with Spanish growth & national deficit forecasts was under what Spain themselves are working off. The EC calls 2013 Spanish GDP -1.5% (vs Spains -0.5%) & a budget deficit of 6% (vs Spains 4.5%). Despite all this Spanish (& Italian) 10yr yields contracted 10pts on the night.

The reverse in fortune for the UK continued as Industrial production fell 1.7% mom and manufacturing production was weaker than expected. The pound was steady and sitting just below 1.6000.

Monday 5 November 2012

Market Update - 6 November 2012

The yoyo trading in equities overnight was unsurprising given the busy calendar for the rest of the week. European stocks fell (Eurostoxx -1.16%), playing catch up with the late selloff in the US on Friday, with Spain (-1.89%) underperforming after the number of registered unemployed rose 128.2k vs the survey of 110k with the total number of jobless rising 2.7% to 4.8m.

The Dow will close marginally higher, as will the S&P as banks look soft but tech, oil & gas stocks outperformed.

USDMYR opened where it closed yesterday at 3.0630 as market keenly awaits the result of the presidential election, Asia time will know the results when we wake up tmrw. Expect low trading volumes and maybe some slight upside for today as we await the elections but I reckon regardless who wins, market should be risk on slightly tomorrow as the uncertainty lingering for past month is finally over.

Interesting enough, on Bloomberg TV yesterdat they interviewed Paddy Power one of the largest online betting firms and they have already paid out for the people who placed their bets on Obama to win, and that percentage of betters who bet on Obama to win was 75%. These guys are usually quite sharp for some reason, let’s see if they made the right decision to pay out early this round.

Peripheral spreads widened again as safe havens were sought, treasury yields fell 3bps to 1.686% and German 2yr yield turned negative for the first time in 2 months.

Gold also bounced 0.34% or $6 to $1684, while WTI oil stepped back from the precipice, rising 86c to $85.72.

The ISM released its Non-Manufacturing PMI in the States, the number was 54.2 vs 55.1 last and 54.5 on the survey. The number, despite falling is showing a mild uptrend with construction and retail the best performing sectors; the employment index also showed a large rise to 54.9 from 51.1 last month.

In the UK the services PMI fell to 50.6 from 52.2, a level last seen in late 2010 and at the bottom of the post GFC range. This flies in the face of the recently positive data there; the pound fell 46pts through 1.60 to close 1.5969.

Something I thought I’d just point out here from Ambrose Evans Pritchard from the UK’s Telegraph re China from the weekend, it’s big picture stuff but a great read on the situation in China ahead of Thursday’s Party Congress: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9654300/Chinas-economic-destiny-in-doubt-after-leadership-shock.html