Market Update - 31 Dec 2012

· With little more than a day left to avert the fiscal cliff, US budget talks stall over income tax rates, the estate tax and some other issues

· Meanwhile, US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton was sent to the hospital this morning with blood clot stemming from a concussion she suffered earlier this month and was being assessed by doctors

· Most Asian stocks declined, paring this year’s advance, with a deadline looming for the US Congress to reach a budget agreement before the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and spending cut takes effect

· China’s central bank said it will focus on controlling risks in the financial system and seek “stable and appropriate” growth in aggregate financing, a measure of funding that includes loans and stock and bonds sale

· South Korea’s inflation eased to the slowest pace in four months in December, staying below the nation’s price target even as an economic recovery shows signs of gaining momentum

· Singapore property stocks, the best performers on the benchmark Straits Times Index this year, are set to extend their gains in 2013 on higher demand for homes, offices and hotels, according to UOB – Kay Hian Pte.

· US fiscal cliff outcome is likely a combination of limited fiscal progress and very easy money that will likely be dollar-negative, says Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX strategy at Citigroup

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-25 Dec 2012

SGS (1-25 Dec) = 1293765 v 1256492(up 2.97%)

Malaysia Palm Oil ITS Data 1-25 Dec 2012

ITS (1-25 Dec) = 1283704 v 1276792(up 0.54%)

My Baby This Week -- Your 14 month old

Toys for 12 to 18 months

Your toddler is really taking off these days -- and as you chase your little runaway down the street yet again, you may miss the days before she learned to use her legs so well. "Active" is the best way to describe her now, and she likes any toy or game that allows her to throw her whole self into it -- balls, swings and little climbing frames to name a few.

Her hands are becoming more coordinated, too, and she can now use shape sorters more efficiently, build even bigger block towers, and scribble a drawing. Her play involves lots of experimentation, such as "What happens if I drop this ball?" or "What happens if pull this lever?" She's very interested in the consequences of her actions, and because her memory isn't well developed she won't tire of repetition. Toddlers also like to try out what they see adults doing, so look for toys that imitate daily life.

Push and pull toys: Heavily weighted push toys can give your beginner something to lean on as she motors around your home. Pull toys are great for more advanced walkers who can look behind them as they move forward: ones that flap, bob up and down, squeak or in any other way catch attention are favourites. Find out more about walking and your toddler.

Sorting and nesting toys: Toddlers love to sort, stack, unsort, unstack, and basically reorganise their lives. Sorting and nesting toys are great fun for those who are trying out their early problem-solving skills.

Climbing frame: A small climbing frame can give your toddler a safe place to climb, hide, slide, and practice all her emerging motor skills -- over and over again. But they can also be pricey and are quickly outgrown.

Balls: Any ball that's easy to grasp will be a hit with this group -- underinflated beach balls, tennis balls, cloth balls. Stay away from foam balls that could end up as a mouthful. This is the age at which you can introduce your child to "catch". Start slowly -- she'll begin to get the back-and-forth rhythm with some practice.

Washable crayons and paper: Let the scribbling begin! Hand your toddler no more than a couple of crayons at a time -- you don't want to overwhelm her -- and tape the paper to the floor so she can make her mark without dragging the paper along with her.

Ride-on vehicles: This mode of locomotion may be even more popular than walking. Many small ride-on toys have handles for an adult to push when the child gets tired. Avoid the electronic versions -- they're expensive and take away from the fun of getting around under your own power.

Tool bench or toy kitchen: Fix-it kids or aspiring chefs will get hours of play out of plastic or wooden models scaled to their size. Toys like these give a child a chance to emulate the things he sees adults doing, and they'll continue to hold his interest for several months as his play gets more sophisticated.

Picture books: Your toddler will enjoy more advanced picture books showing familiar objects and activities. She may also start to take pride in her own library and the chance to pick out a favourite for you to read.

Let's play! 14-month-old

1] Stacking towers
Building towers with your little one will not only help his motor control but also start to lay down the foundations of maths.

Skills developed: motor control, sorting, cause and effect, language.
What you’ll need: building blocks of any shape; design or colour.

Start with a pile of building blocks and gradually build your toddler a tower. He may want to help or he might prefer to wait until you're finished then take great delight in knocking the whole thing down. Talk your toddler through the process either by counting the bricks as you build them up or naming their colours. Tell him if you are going to build a big tower or a small tower. Watching the tower you have just built come tumbling down will encourage his sense of cause and effect.

2] Mirror me

Toddlers are great mimics, especially when it comes to pulling faces. And while you are having fun, she will be developing her coordination and dexterity.

Skills developed: imagination, motor skills, social skills.
What you'll need: just yourselves.

Sit down facing your toddler. Start with simple actions like poking out your tongue, waving, reaching up high or covering your face. Encourage your toddler to copy you. Now it's her turn. She will be fascinated to see you copy her every move.

Your 14-month-old's development

Major milestones

By now, your toddler may have mastered waving "bye-bye" and is probably able to roll a ball back and forth with an adult. About half the toddlers this age are drinking from a cup, and some are beginning to be interested in helping around the house. Your toddler may well be able to stand alone, can probably stoop down and then stand back up again, and might even be working on walking backwards. He may say several words and is learning more every day. He's also starting to have clear ideas about what he wants and will be persistent in trying to achieve them.

Asserts wants and desires

The things you say no to will probably have the most allure for your toddler, so making your house safe for exploration will make both your lives easier. If you cover plugs, lock low cupboards, and keep fragile items out of reach, he'll be safer and you can relax a little. You might designate one low cabinet just for toddler play. Fill it with items you don't mind him touching -- like plastic containers, toys or empty boxes -- and occasionally change the contents for variety. Your toddler learns about the world through play.

Eats with relish and exuberance

Don't expect adult manners from your toddler. Eating -- like everything else your toddler is doing -- is a learning experience, and at this age learning tends to be messy. He's working on improving his skill with a spoon -- which is central to the eating task -- but he's also checking out the texture of egg and what grapes do when thrown, which can be hard on your floor and furniture. Spread a splash mat under his chair, provide him with an assortment of healthy foods, and let him choose what he wants to eat.

Forms strong attachment to comfort items

Your toddler relies on the sense of security he gets from his favourite stuffed lion, dearest blanket, or both. These items, called "transitional objects," can be a source of comfort, especially when you're not around. Paediatricians often recommend that parents encourage these attachments. Although your child is struggling to master new skills every day with varying degrees of success, the cuddly blanket is one thing he can consistently return to for comfort.

Market Update - 24 Dec 2012

• Little happening as we head towards year end and it’s X’mas tomorrow. Most people are away and market is expecting very thin volumes for today and the rest of the week as we countdown towards 2013.

• US Data came out better than expected but the risk rally could not sustain as Republican’s John Boehner is losing support from his own people and the path to resolve US Fiscal Cliff now becomes even more uncertain to investors.

• Treasury 10-year rallied again on the no outcome of the discussion in White House on the fiscal cliff, and market is left wondering what is Plan B now that’s on the table? The 10-year eased to 1.75% from 1.80%, with immediate support level at 1.90%.

• Oil fell more than 1% on Friday as fears of no resolve for the Fiscal Cliff by 31^st December looms, oil traders taking profit on the earlier gains and liquidity shrinks towards year end.

• USDMYR opened higher at 3.0760 as investors fly to the safety of the US Dollars, but USDMYR still trading in the 3.0300-3.0800 range. I believe the short USDMYR holders have mostly covered all their positions and headlines will dominate what levels we will end with for USDMYR.

Wishing everyone a very Merry X’mas, have a great one tomorrow!

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-20 Dec 2012

SGS (1-20 Dec) = 1015440 v 1010417(up 0.5%)

Malaysia Palm Oil ITS Data 1-20 Dec 2012

ITS (1-20 Dec) = 1004159 v 1023517(do​wn 1.89%)

Market Update - 19 Dec 2012

• Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark headed for the highest close since February, amid signs U.S. policy makers are making progress in budget negotiations. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed above 10,000 as the nation’s central bank starts a policy meeting.

• Japan’s exports fell for a sixth month in November and the trade deficit swelled, underscoring the challenge that incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces in reviving growth. Shipments slid 4.1 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministrysaid in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 23 economists was for a 5.5 percent decline. Imports rose 0.8 percent leaving a deficit of 953.4 billion yen ($11.3 billion), the third-largest on record.

• Treasuries slid for a second day as investors bet U.S. leaders will resolve a budget showdown and the U.S. sold $35 billion of five-year debt to the lowest demand in five months.
  
• Thirty-year bond yields climbed to a three-month high as President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner negotiated
  to end a stalemate that could push the economy into recession next year. Yields on five-year securities climbed to the highest level in seven weeks as the sale, the second of four note offerings this week totaling $113 billion, drew bids for 2.72 times the amount offered, the least since July.

• Spain’s government bonds rose, with two-year yields falling toward the lowest level in two weeks, as borrowing costs declined at a 3.52 billion-euro ($4.65 billion) bills auction.
  
• Five-year yields dropped the most in almost three weeks as the country met the maximum target the Treasury set for the last debt sale of the year.

• Italian 10-year bonds rose for a third day as the nation’s Senate begins discussing the government’s 2013 budget plan. Germany’s 10-year yields climbed to the highest in two weeks before a report tomorrow that economists said will show business confidence increased in December.

• USDMYR opened a touch lower at 3.0550 today still trading around the 3.0600 handle as market continues to sit tight and wait for 2013.

• Expect the remaining 2 weeks of 2013 to be quiet as the fiscal cliff in US hogs the headlines in US and also global markets as the uncertainty is causing market participants to sit by the sidelines for more signals and certainties.

Malaysia Palm Oil SGS Data 1-15 Dec 2012

SGS (1-15 Dec) = 734571v 759452(dow​n 3.28%)

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Am I Accidentally Raising Spoiled Kids?

By Stefanie Wilder-Taylor 

When I was a young child, around my oldest daughter’s age, we didn’t have much. Moving into a small rental house with my newly separated mother we made do with just the essentials - if that.

Let’s put it this way, I’ve drunk juice out of empty jelly jars and worn hand-me-down panties. For Christmas, I didn’t get many new things but it was okay because I really didn’t know any better.

I can still remember the thrill of finding an old, dusty white porcelain statue of a hand (with a broken pinky) left behind by the last tenant of our house in a kitchen drawer. I screamed with glee when I discovered it and then proceeded to carry it around me for weeks amazed at my good fortune. I’m positive that if there was show and tell in my school at that time, The Hand would have made a few appearances. Elby would laugh her butt off if I told her that story. “Why didn’t you go to the store and get a new toy?” she’d probably ask me. And then I’d tell her that we didn’t have enough money and I think she’d understand.

When Elby first started asking for things when we went to a store, I’d often tell her straight out that we can’t afford it. So now she’ll point to a toy and ask me, “Mommy, do we have enough money for this?” My daughter is certainly not spoiled and my husband I are do our very best to make sure she stays that way but I find with my background can be a tough road to navigate. With the holidays quickly approaching, my daughter’s list for Santa grows longer every few days. I know that I could afford to buy her everything on her list - mainly because the things she lusts after are mostly in the $14.99 price range - but I also know that it’s not healthy for kids to get everything they want - not even most of what they want regardless of the price tag.

Thanks to my background, I have solid values when it comes to money; I appreciate the hell out of the nice things I have. We own only one set of really good sheets with a high thread count. I didn’t even know what “thread count” was until I was in my thirties. Of course now that I know the difference, I love my sheets. I take nothing for granted. But I’m not sure that’s always a good thing. I also know what it’s like to pine for things I’ll never have. I distinctly remember reading Seventeen magazine and seeing Phoebe Cates modeling the cutest clogs I knew I’d never own. I never had the “right” sneakers which were Nike (with the swoosh) or the right polo shirt (which had an alligator not a tiger - hi JCPenney). I cringed coming to school in my knock-off rainbow pocket jeans when everyone else had the real deal. The other kids let me know I wasn’t fooling anyone. I don’t remember ever getting a toy “just because” let alone things I really wanted. I don’t want my daughter to feel that way if she doesn’t have to.

And so I work for the balance.

I want my children to understand that they can’t have everything they want, that people work hard for their money, that some people have less than others, and some have more -and that those who have more have a responsibility to help those that have less.

But she’s five.

She’s still going to ask me to buy her something every time we’re in Target. She’s still going to ask me for every toy she sees on a television commercial that’s aimed directly at her little demo and I’m still going to have to fight the urge to do it every time because there’s a very big part of me that wants to give her everything. I literally want to buy her the moon. It’s ridiculously over-priced by the way. If you thought buying a star was expensive…

So look, I know that we can’t load up a billion presents under the tree. My husband and I see totally eye-to-eye on this yet we still probably tend towards getting too much. But the other day Elby took a toy out of her toy box that she rarely plays with. “Maybe we could give this to one of the kids who don’t have any toys,” she said (we’d just done a drive at her school for a near-by food pantry that services the homeless in the area).

“What a great idea, Sweetie. That is so generous and thoughtful of you.”

“Yeah! And then we could get me a brand new one that I really like!”

Well, you know. We’re getting there.

Politics of Presents: The Guide to Buying Gifts for Multiple Kids

By Stefanie Wilder-Taylor

So I’m at Target today doing a little Santa shopping for my four-year-old, Elby (luckily she’s not one of those super advanced four-year-olds you hear people brag about who can already read - otherwise I couldn’t even write this column) when it occurred to me that... horrors... I would have to buy gifts from Santa for my one-year-old twins as well.

I hadn’t actually accounted for that because, after all, they’re ONE and don’t need or understand the concept of presents. But as I was grabbing a few things from Elby’s letter to Santa - a recorder, a book where you find the Disney fairy, a dream catcher (which, even though I found one at Barnes and Noble, I put back because, come on - it’s not the sixties) - I pictured her waking up Christmas morning, finding her presents and then wondering why Santa didn’t bring the babies anything.

“Were they bad this year?” she might wonder. “Am I more special?” “Do Mommy and Daddy love me more?” And the answer to all of those questions is of course, sort of. But that would require way too much explaining.

Preschoolers have an innate sense of fairness. They are acutely aware of another child getting something they didn’t get as well as if they are favored over another child. So, I realized, I’m screwed. I now have three kids to buy for and we’re on a budget.

After coming home and enjoying a little post shopping egg nog (made with low-fat egg nog mix), I calmed down quite a bit. I realized that with a couple of years behind me in the kid gift giving biz, I have a bit of knowledge. And as you know, knowledge is power. Not only that, but knowledge can prevent too much crying which is always a time and sanity saver.

There are politics involved in gift giving and the best thing you can do is have a plan and then follow it no matter how many things you see that would be “just perfect!” for your adorable angel. Here are a few rules I am following that can help you get through most gift giving that involves the under preschool set:

1. At least for my daughter (and no, she’s not spoiled - she’s four) quantity over quality is best for both of us. 

If presented with a choice between a $45 dollar magic wand from a cool kid’s boutique that specializes in a one of a kind wand which is an artistic treasure certain to “enchant any child’s imagination” or five crappy magic wands from the 99 Cents store - I’m going to happily save over 40 bucks. Plus, either way, the thing is going to have lost its newness after a few days anyway and land in a toy chest never to be seen again. Or at least until it’s discovered by another child who wants to play with it at which point it will suddenly be “My special wand!”

2. Kids don’t like surprises. 

This makes shopping a lot easier. I sat Elby down and we wrote her letter to Santa where she let Santa know that she would like a blue Mariposa Barbie, Ariel pajamas a Sky Dancer (some $10 toy she spotted at CVS six months ago that I told her she could have for Christmas and - like an elephant - she never forgot about it) and a candy cane. I gently reminded her that this is to help Santa decide but that he probably won’t be able to get everything. She said she understood. But she did want to remind him that we are baking him cookies and if he wants that tradition to continue he should be sure to read her list very carefully. A lot of people make the mistake of assuming that kids like surprises and end up spending money on things their kid will never touch when a five dollar Barbie could have brought hours of fun and gratitude. Which brings me to my next rule…

3. Any gifts that are not from Santa or parents are best left to be opened after the giver has left the premises. 

The aunt or uncle or neighbor or family friend will beg and cajole but chance are, they if you do let your child open the gift, the giver will end up getting their feelings hurt. Kids, no matter how well trained in manners, are famous for their honestly and even if they say “thank you” because they don’t want a time-out, their face will be saying “Have you ever met a four-year-old? Why would possibly give you the idea I would give two craps about a puzzle with a kitten on it? Watch a few cartoons on the Disney Channel and make sure you sit through the commercials, cuz that’s what I want.” This also goes for presents given by other children. First off, if it’s a holiday party or especially a birthday party, the last thing you want is a child opening gifts in front of other children they are not related to. It’s torture for the gift giver to part with a toy and it’s impossible for the gift receiver to spend enough time oohing and aahing to satisfy the person who bought the toy. Best let your kid tear through the gifts later and try to send a card.

And lastly…

4. When it comes to kids and gifts - always give a gift receipt. 

They are used more often than you’d like to think. Better yet, maybe just give cash.

Ho ho ho.

Market Update - 17 Dec 2012

• Treasuries fell for a second week, the first back-to-back losses in three months, as the Federal Reserve’s expansion of a bond-buying program spurred speculation inflation will increase.

• Thirty-year yields touched a five-week high after the Federal Open Market Committee announced plans to buy $45 billion of Treasuries a month and took the unprecedented step of linking stimulus measures to unemployment and inflation.

• Losses were tempered by concern a budget standoff in Washington may push the economy into recession. The U.S. sold $66 billion in notes and bonds, and said it will auction $113 billion of notes next week.

• “The Fed’s message was one of higher tolerance for inflation, and they are purchasing less on the long end, which has been bearish for bonds,” said Gary Pollack, head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s.“Still, the driving force in the market is the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, and until that’s resolved we won’t stray far from the range.”

• USDMYR opened at 3.0550 as we expect it to range trade around the 3.0600 handle again this week. For those who are not aware, if you have not yet registered to be a voter for the next election, you can still do it by this week. I reckon now that we are in Mid December, the election will very likely be in the end Feb-mid Mar period.

• Spanish bonds advanced for a third week in four as borrowing costs fell at a debt sale and after European leaders signed off on the next aid tranche for Greece, stoking optimism the euro-region debt crisis is being contained. 

• Greece’s 10-year debt rose for a sixth week after the nation said it had reached a deal to buy back some of its sovereign securities. Similar-maturity German bunds fell as European Union leaders approved the payout of 49.1 billion euros ($64.3 billion) of loans for Greece through March and laying the groundwork for a supra-national bank supervisor, damping demand for the safest assets. Spain sold 2.02 billion euros of government debt.

• Japan just had it’s election and there was a landslide win by LDP. With the LDP coalition having won 320 seats which is more than 2/3 of the seats. Constitutional amendments need both houses 2/3 votes. Other laws which have been rejected by the upper house can be overruled by the 2/3 votes in the lower house. That’s where the LDP coalition has power with this election. Also with expected LDP’s aggressive monetary easing stance we expect more JPY weakening to come ahead for medium term.

Malaysia Palm Oil ITS Data 1-15 Dec 2012

ITS (1-15 Dec) = 713817 v 769087(dow​n 6.4%)

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Market Update - 12 Dec 2012

• Stocks rose as risk appetite gained amid signs Europe’s fiscal crisis may ease. Expecting Asia to be relatively quiet today ahead of FOMC and I see little to get excited today. S&P was up up 0.65% to 1,427.84 and Dow was up 06.0% to 13,248.44.

• Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year yields to a two-week high, as investors sought higher-yielding assets and the Federal Open Market Committee began a two-day meeting amid forecasts it will decide to buy more bonds to spur the economy.

• USDMYR yesterday towards the closing spiked up to 3.0650. The closing of short USDMYR positions have started some weeks back but I reckon as we come closer to year end more unwinding are in the market driving the pair higher. Range still 3.0300-3.0800 with nothing

• The benchmark 10-year note yield increased four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.65 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. It touched 1.66 percent, the highest level since Nov. 27.

• Italian bonds rose, with 10-year yields falling from the highest level in three weeks, as concern eased that Prime Minister Mario Monti’s resignation would derail the nation’s attempts to cut its debt load.

• Italy’s securities snapped their slide from yesterday before the nation sells as much as 6.5 billion euros ($8.44
  billion) of bills tomorrow and debt due in 2015 and 2026 the following day. Spanish bonds advanced after an auction of bills raised more than the maximum target set for the sale.

• Greece’s yields fell to the lowest since the nation’s debt was restructured in March as its offer to buy back sovereign debt expired. German bunds fell after investor confidence improved.

Dollar Remains Lower Versus Euro as Fed Concludes Policy Meeting

By Kristine Aquino and Monami Yui

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar remained lower versus the euro after a two-day decline, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce today an expansion of asset purchases that tend to weaken the U.S. currency.

The greenback slid yesterday versus most of its 16 major counterparts amid expectations the Fed will add Treasury purchases to an existing program that buys $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month. The euro was supported ahead of a meetings of European Union finance ministers and head of
government this week, while Greece met its bond buyback target.
The yen weakened against all its peers after Japan's government said North Korea launched a rocket.

"The bias is for the dollar to be sold," said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Mizuho Securities Co., a unit of Japan's third-largest bank by market value. "The Fed seems to have no intention to relax its easing stance."

The dollar was little changed at $1.3006 per euro as of 10:10 a.m. in Tokyo after falling 0.6 percent in the previous two days. It gained as much as 0.1 percent to 82.63 yen before trading at 82.55 from
82.52 in New York. Europe's shared currency was at 107.36 yen after rising 0.7 percent yesterday, the biggest one-day gain since Nov. 21.

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 49 economists. It concludes a two-day policy meeting today.

Keep Buying

The purchases will follow the expiration at year-end of the so-called Operation Twist program. The U.S. central bank pumped $2.3 trillion into the financial system from 2008 to 2011 in two rounds of the stimulus strategy called quantitative easing, or QE.

The dollar lost 1.4 percent in the past month, the second- biggest drop among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen had the largest decline, falling 5.5 percent. The euro gained 1.2 percent.

EU leaders gathering tomorrow in Brussels will debate a road map for the overhaul of the euro region, including increased powers to intervene in national budgets and the establishment of a single banking supervisor.

An official from Greece's Finance Ministry said yesterday investors tendered Greek bonds with a face value of more than 31 billion euros ($40.3 billion), meeting a goal that's crucial to unlocking aid from the EU and the International Monetary Fund.

Euro-area finance ministers discussed the transaction on a conference call yesterday, concluding that no insurmountable obstacles remain to the next disbursement of aid to the nation, according to a European official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Rocket Launch

North Korea launched a rocket at around 9:49 a.m. Japan time, and it headed in a southerly direction, passing over Okinawa, before falling into the sea east of the Philippines, the Japanese government said.

The Australian dollar climbed to the highest in more than two months as Asian stocks advanced, boosting demand for higher- yielding assets. The so-called Aussie bought $1.0533 after earlier touching $1.0541, the strongest since Sept. 17. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares added 0.3 percent.

Market Update - 10 Dec 2012

• Europe came under pressure as a possibility of German recession weighs on market and the deteriorating Italian economy added to the risk off mood.

• Labor Department figures showed the U.S. added 146,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent. Despite this positive data on Friday, market in general reacted little to the US data and shifted their focus quickly to Europe and China data this morning.

• USDMYR opened higher today at 3.0600 as the risk off mode kicks off this quiet Monday morning. Expected range for the week still at 3.0400-3.0800 with light trading volumes expected again.

• The Italian 10-year government bonds posted their first weekly drop in four after former Premier Silvio Berlusconi threatened to withdraw his party’s support for Prime Minister Mario Monti’s coalition government.
  

• Declines yesterday pushed the yield to the most since Nov.28 as Berlusconi’s top political deputy called for an “orderly end” to Monti’s government, saying the administration failed todevelop a strategy to halt the recession.

• Germany’s two-year notes advanced amid speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates after a report yesterday showed the country’s industrial production declined in October. Finnish and Dutch two-year yields fell below zero yesterday.

• The equity markets though today seems to have start off on a slightly more neutral to positive note, early hours still. But in general market already feels that we have bottomed out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2013 start off with some bulls, the tone 2013 starts would be very important I feel to gauge Q1’s direction. Have a great week ahead!

Ringgit Snaps Five-Day Loss on China Economic Recovery Optimism

By Elffie Chew

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The ringgit snapped a five-day losing streak as data suggesting growth is quickening in China, Asia's biggest economy, brightened the outlook for Malaysian exports and spurred demand for emerging-market assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks advanced for an eighth day, the longest winning streak since June 2010, after China's industrial output and retail sales rose last month at the fastest pace since March. The ringgit fell the most in a month on Dec. 7 after a government report showed exports
declined 3.2 percent in October from a year earlier following a 2.6 percent gain in September.

"China's better economic data are the main driver of the firmer Asian currencies," said Wee-Khoon Chong, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. "The ringgit should continue to rally as the weaker Malaysian exports numbers won't have much impact on the currency."

The ringgit advanced 0.1 percent to 3.0548 per dollar as of 8:51 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, following a 0.4 percent drop on Dec. 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-month implied volatility, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, increased 21 basis points, or 0.21 percentage point, to 4.40 percent. The gauge ended last week at the lowest level since June 2007.

China's industrial production climbed 10.1 percent in November from a year earlier and retail sales rose 14.9 percent, the statistics bureau said yesterday. China, including Hong Kong, is the biggest buyer of Malaysian exports.

Malaysia's government bonds gained. The yield on the 3.418 percent notes maturing in August 2022 decreased one basis point to 3.51 percent, according to Bursa Malaysia.

Market Update - 7 December 2012

· Wall Street rose a tad higher on overnight trading, the DOW +0.3%, S&P +0.33% and NASDAQ +0.52% led by gains in the tech sector as Apple Inc. rebounded following its worst drop in four years.

· US jobless claims fell more than expected by 25k to 370k, while Germany’s factory orders grew above expectation by 3.9% momsa in Oct.

· ECB and BOE kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% and 0.50% respectively, with the ECB downgrading their 2013 GDP projection to a range of -0.9% to 0.3%

· The euro weakened against all 16 major peers as ECB President Mario Draghi said there was a “wide discussion” on interest rates. 

· China’s growth rebound, forecast to have gathered pace in November, is bypassing smaller businesses in a sign the government may need to step up policy support to secure a more broad-based recovery

· KLCI inched higher on Thursday and may remain supported towards the end of the week, driven also by gains in Wall Street overnight.

· USD/MYR rose above 3.0500 level with some short covering of the pair and the ringgit weakens ahead of today’s release of export data

 

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Market Update - 6 December 2012

• Citigroup will cut more than 11,000 jobs and pull back from some emerging markets to drive down costs as revenue dries up at global banks

• Wall Street made broad gains on Wednesday, US treasuries climbed and the Dollar Index halted its longest slump in more than a year.

• Investors' sentiment was lifted by Obama's remarks that the budget stalemate can be resolved within a week and China new leaders’ pledge to accelerate urban development. Positive sentiments were also boosted by US factory orders and ISM non-mfg index, while Euro-area composite PMI rose above-expectation to 46.5.

• Euro slipped after a disappointing Spanish bond auction and weak Eurozone economic data.

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates unchanged at 2.50% this morning as widely expected. Wheeler said domestic demand will strengthen and next 2 years domestic growth to accelerate to 2.5 – 3.0%, NZD/USD higher post announcement.

• KLCI closed slightly above the 1610 mark, driven by some recovery in the local sentiment but continued to show little indication that any significant move is forthcoming in the near-term. October trade data due tomorrow is eagerly awaited for hints of recovery in external demand.

• USD/MYR remains trapped in recent range and likely to trade circa 3.0400 for now

Market Update - 5 December 2012

• Low volumes and directionless trading for bond and equity markets as investors watch the ongoing Fiscal Cliff negotiations from the sidelines.

• A proposal was put forward by House Republicans yesterday which was swiftly rejected by President Obama as it included no tax hike on the wealthy, relying instead on cuts to health care and axing unspecified tax deductions. Meanwhile Obama gave his first interview since the election in response “We’re going to have to see the rates on the top 2 percent go up, and we’re not going to be able to get a deal without it.”

• USDMYR opened just a tad higher at 3.0460 with expected low volumes and range trading for today.

• The DOW is dead flat while treasury notes are back at the top of their recent range, down 1bp to 1.61%. Healthcare stocks outperforming as a defensive play and on hopes Obama will protect the sector through the budget talks.

• The Euro rose again overnight (+50pts to 1.3102) as optimism over Greece’ debt buyback and Spain’s banking bailout buoyed sentiment. The Eurostoxx added 0.33%, led by financials. Gold fell 1.2% and back through $1700 while oil shed 60c to $88.51. Also the Euroswiss hit its highest level since September at 1.2134 last.

• Hopes for the EU agreeing on a banking union this year were diminished overnight as Wolfgang Schauble warned again over German reluctance to allow its smaller banks to fall under the regulators watch. Ministers will meet again on the issue next week.

• The bank of Canada left rates at 1% and did not update its guidance.

• The only other data was the New York ISM which rose modestly to 52.5 from 45.9 while UK construction activity unexpectedly slowed in November to 49.3 from 50.9.

Market Update - 4 December 2012

• The ISM Manufacturing index declined in November to 49.5 from 51.7, falling back into negative territory for the first time since August. November’s drop was unexpected because each of the regional manufacturing surveys we track (besides the Philly Fed survey) increased in the month, as did the Markit PMI, while global manufacturing sentiment seems to be gradually improving.

• The details of the report provided mixed signals. On the positive side, both production and supplier deliveries increased in the month and are in expansionary territory. On the negative, new orders (domestic and external), employment and inventories all declined significantly.

• Greece offered 10 billion euros (USD 13bio) to buy back bonds issued earlier this year as the bailed-out nation attempts to cut a debt load that may threaten future international aid. Issues in Europe will not go away overnight and expect more headlines news from Greece in 2013 but market have been lately immune to the news and reacted little unless it’s a major headline.

• USDMYR opened at 3.0420 unchanged despite a mild risk off last night. Expecting low trading volume in early Dec and range to be still in the 3.0300-3.0800 range, with little change for the day.

• Australia Retail Sales for October came in flat (vs. est: +0.4% ; previous: +0.5%). Q3 Business inventories edge higher by +1.1% (vs. est: +0.4% ; previous: +0.6%). RBA rate decision today, market seems to be quite confident

• RBA will cut 25bps to bring the official rates to 3.00% but as I was discussing with my colleague, the rate cut narrows the yield differential and it also puts a gloomy tag on the local economy, the only party happy with the rate cut will be bond holders.

• DJIA down 0.46% to finish at 12,965.60 as the weaker US data again dictating the direction of equities market.

Your baby's poo: what's normal and what's not

What is normal baby poo?

It's amazing how much time we mums spend inspecting our baby's nappies, trying to figure out whether the frequency, colour and consistency of baby's poo is normal. But what's normal for your baby's poo can depend on how old she is, whether she's breastfed or bottlefed, and whether she's started solids. The frequency, colour, texture and consistency of your baby's poo will change regularly as she develops from a newborn through her first year and you'll soon be able to tell what's normal for her.

There is no set frequency for how often your baby should poo. In the early months this will depend on whether you are breast- or formula-feeding your baby. Breastfed babies who are not on solids may poo four times a day or more, or only once every three days, but you shouldn't worry about the frequency as long as the stools are soft and easy to pass. But formula-fed babies normally need to poo each day to avoid constipation.

Your baby's poo may regularly change in consistency and colour, too, going from soft and mustard-yellow in colour to yellow with green specks, and then back again the next day. This is completely normal.

What will my newborn be passing when he poos?

For the first couple of days after the birth, your baby will pass meconium. This is a sticky, greeny-black substance that has built up in your baby's intestines during your pregnancy and is made up of bile, mucus, cells from the bowel wall, secretions and amniotic fluid. While meconium may be difficult to wipe off that tiny bottom, its appearance is a good sign that your baby's bowels are working normally.

After a day or two, once feeding is established and the last of the meconium passes out, the stools will turn a browny-green and be loose and grainy in texture, before becoming more yellow.

What will my baby's poo be like if I am breastfeeding?

The stools of breastfed and formula-fed babies will look very different. Your colostrum or "first milk" acts as a laxative, helping to push meconium out of your baby's system. Once your milk becomes established, after about three days, your baby's stools will gradually change to a bright, or mustard, yellow and be sweet-smelling. They will be loose, but textured, sometimes seeming grainy, or, at others, curdled.

In the early weeks, your baby may poo during or after every feed, but this will settle down and she will work out her own routine, often passing stools at a similar time each day. This routine can change at intervals, for instance, when you introduce solids, if your baby is feeling unwell, or when she starts to take fewer feeds.

What will my baby's poo be like if I am formula-feeding?

Your formula-fed baby's stools will be pale yellow or yellowish-brown in colour. Remnants of the formula will leave it looking bulkier and more formed than a breastfed baby's. This is because the formula will not be as completely digested as breastmilk. The smell will be pretty pungent, too, smelling more like an adult's stools.

Formula-fed babies normally need to poo once a day to feel comfortable, as their waste is bulkier. The longer poo stays in the bowel the harder it will become and the more difficult to pass, which could lead to constipation. Talk to your paediatrician if you feel your baby has a problem.

How will my baby's poo be affected if we change from breast to formula?

If you switch from breast to formula-feeding, it is important to do this slowly, over a period of at least two weeks. This will give your baby's digestive system time to adapt and avoid constipation. It will also reduce the risk of painful, swollen breasts for you. Once your baby has adapted to the formula, she may settle down into a completely different pooing routine!

How will my baby's poo be affected when we start him on baby food?

The biggest change in your baby's poo will be when you start her on solids. Gone will be those easy-to-wipe-clean, sweet-smelling poos. Once on solids, what goes in must come out. This means that, when you feed your four-month-old pureed carrot, the contents of her next nappy will be bright orange.

As she progresses onto a variety of foods, her poo will become thicker, darker and a lot more smelly! As she tries more textured foods, you'll find that those rich in fibre, such as raisins or baked beans, will pass straight through, until her digestive tract develops enough to deal with them more efficiently.

What's not normal baby poo?

Diarrhoea
Symptoms include very runny stools and sometimes an increase in volume and frequency, and they can seem to spurt explosively out of your baby's bottom. A breastfed baby is less likely to suffer from diarrhoea, as breastmilk helps to inhibit the micro-organisms which cause it.

Formula-fed babies are more prone to infection, which is why it is vital to sterilise equipment and always wash your hands thoroughly. The cause may be an infection, such as gastroenteritis, too much fruit or juice, teething, any medication your baby is on, or a sensitivity or allergy to a food.

Diarrhoea should clear up without treatment within 24 hours, but if not, get it checked out. Mums often assume the cause is their brand of formula, but before changing, talk to your paediatrician in case there are any other causes.

Constipation
This is more than a case of your baby turning bright red and pushing hard when she poos. Symptoms include difficulty in passing stools - which appear like small, dry pellets - abdominal pain and a tight tummy, irritability, and sometimes blood-streaked stools which could be due to anal fissures (tiny cracks in the skin) caused by passing hard stools. Breastfed babies don't tend to suffer as much as formula-fed babies, as their milk contains all the right nutrients to keep their stools soft.

Always take your baby to your family doctor or paediatrician if she is constipated and particularly if you notice blood in her stools, to check out all possible causes. You'll probably be advised to increase her fluid intake, as well as the amount of fibre in her diet if she is on solids. One way of doing this is to give her pureed prunes or apricots.

Green poo
If your baby's stools are green and frothy she may be taking in too much lactose (the natural sugar found in milk), which happens if she feeds often, but doesn't get the rich milk at the end of the feed to fill her up. It may also be caused by overfeeding or underfeeding, or is a sign that your baby has a stomach bug.

Make sure your baby finishes feeding from one breast before offering her the other. If the symptoms last longer than 24 hours, consult your paediatrician to try to find the source of the problem, as it may be due to a food sensitivity, medication or your feeding routine.

Streaks of blood
Streaks of blood in your baby's stools may occur if she's constipated as straining can cause anal fissures. But always get this checked out by your paediatrician to eliminate any other cause.