Wednesday 25 July 2012

Market Update - 25 July 2012

·     Regrettably there’s not a lot of good news to report again this morning, USD MYR spiked up to3.1870-3.1920 as risk aversion dominates the market continuing this week’s bearish tone

·     More risk aversion overnight began with the European PMI figures showing sharper than expected contractions in most of the metrics, perhaps the most troubling were the German figures which is are highly correlated to GDP growth and suggest a rough ride for Germany in H2.

·     An article published by Reuters citing EU officials then suggested that another debt restructuring may be necessary to get Greece back on track; a full report will be published next month.

·     The Euro legged lower on the news making a fresh low at 1.2043, it has stabilized this morning last 1.2065

·      Stocks sank in Europe and the US with the Euro Stoxx index off 1.27% (led by Spain and Italy,down 3.6 and 2.7%) and the S&P down 0.9%

·      Oil was higher by 0.4% while gold continues to hold up, itwas $6 higher at $1581.

·     After Moody’s placed Germany, Lux and the Netherlands on negative outlook (leaving only Finland with a stable outlook in the 17 nation block) core Euro bonds were hurt. The yield on the German 10yr rose 6bps to 1.234% while the French equivalent rose12bps to 2.25%. US treasuries and UK gilts were in favour, yields off 4bps and 0.5bps respectively.

·     Over in the States earnings season rumbled on under a darkening Euro-shaped cloud, with AT&T beating while Apple missed sales guidance for only the second time since 2003 with earnings at $9.32 vs guidance of $10.37  (the stock falling as much as 6%in post market trade). Du-Pont, UPS, Whirlpool and Texas Instruments also lost ground.

·     Data in the US saw the Mark it manufacturing PMI hit a low not seen since Dec 2010 at 51.8 vs 52.5 last time but still expanding.Worrying signs.


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